Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Standoutsensation exits live race

Saratoga | Race 5 | Post Time 3:27 p.m. (ET)

Regulatory Risk (#4) has been on a steady diet of stakes races ever since breaking her maiden last December. Her runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Gazelle propelled her into the Kentucky Oaks field, where she outran her 29-1 odds to close for third behind division leader Thorpedo Anna. She took on that rival again in the Grade 1 Acorn last time out, but could never get a rally going. Now the connections take a step back, dropping her into allowance company for the first time. She’s obviously going to be tough, but you will have to swallow a much shorter price than she’s been in recent starts.

Sedona (#7) also figures to attract plenty of support. This $2 million yearling purchase has a regal pedigree, being a full sister to Grade 3 Pimlico Special winner First Captain. She was no match for the talented Sidamara two back at Churchill, and then disappointed as a heavy favorite last time behind an inferior New York-bred rival. I do think she still has upside, but I’m skeptical of the addition of blinkers and expect her to be overbet with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.

Central Avenue (#5) is a wild card in this lineup as she returns from a lengthy layoff to make a belated 3-year-old debut. She obviously kept strong company last year, chasing home the likes of Just F Y I and Thorpedo Anna. Michael Stidham runners can sometimes need a start coming off layoffs, and she’s returning at a demanding distance.

My top pick is Standoutsensation (#3). This filly hasn’t won since getting claimed by Tom Amoss last fall, but she’s run well on a number of occasions while keeping strong company. She ran future graded stakes winner Tarifa to a close decision at Fair Grounds in January before finishing second to another future stakes winner, Our Pretty Woman. She didn’t get the smoothest trip in the Ashland, and then didn’t seem to care for the slop in May. Yet she got back on track last time at Churchill, just missing at this distance. That race has proved to be deceptively strong for the level, as third-place Little Jamie came back to just miss in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and fifth-place Just Basking won the Iowa Oaks, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure 4 points. Even the sixth-place finisher came back to win, improving her figure by 9 points. There isn’t much speed signed on, as suggested by the Favors Front-runners characterization on the Pace Projector. I think this filly can use her favorable draw to make the front under Jose Ortiz.