Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Standard of Proof steps up off game maiden win

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:14 p.m. (ET)

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Rivalry (#3) is clearly the horse to beat as he ships into New York for Brad Cox. This colt was hitting his best stride too late on debut, and then caught a very tough field for the level in his second start. That race’s winner, Highland Falls, looks like a horse with great potential, and the runner-up, Mo Fight, returned to win his next start with a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Then last time Rivalry crushed an overmatched maiden field going 1 3/16 miles, so we know stamina is no issue. He’s a deserving favorite, but unlikely to offer much value.

A few of these runners are exiting an allowance race at this level on Oct. 6 won by Winters Lion, who came back with a respectable effort in the Discovery earlier this week. Mistical Curlin (#9) was second that day in a game effort, since he wasn’t able to make the lead but still battled on until the final stages. However, he’s drawn a tough post position outside, so he may not get his ideal trip again. Suerte (#6) was the one who got sent to the front in that spot and he responded well to those tactics, holding on until midstretch. His 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance makes him highly competitive here, but he’s another who may have to settle for a different trip this time with Rivalry likely to show speed.

My top pick is the recent maiden winner Standard of Proof (#2). Some may hold it against him that he broke his maiden at Monmouth, but that was a solid race for the level. Runner-up Aquarius Moon returned to finish second, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 4 points, and fourth-place Malibu Springs improved his next figure by 9 points. Standard of Proof contested the pace throughout and refused to yield when challenged through the stretch. That was a strong effort off the layoff, and I think he can move forward here. Chad Brown is a remarkable 19 for 45 (42%, $2.32 ROI) with 3-year-old last-out maiden winners in dirt routes at NYRA over the past 5 years.