Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Souzak turns back in Carle Place

Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:22 p.m. (ET)

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Gaslight Dancer (#2) is probably the horse to beat in this Carle Place despite the fact that he’s finished off the board in three consecutive races. He actually ran quite well two back in the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs, chasing an honest pace behind Talk of the Nation, who is one of the most talented 3-year-old turf horses in the country. Then last time he had a valid excuse after setting a fast pace in a race that collapsed going a distance that is probably too far for him. I like him cutting back, but it must be noted that his most recent sprint effort on this surface in the Mahony was disappointing.

Son of a Birch (#3) actually finished ahead of Gaslight Dancer in the Mahony at a big price. This horse is better than his career record on turf indicates, as he has been in a series of less than ideal situations. He got caught up in a fast pace that collapsed in his 2-year-old finale, and then found himself involved in another fast pace in the Paradise Creek earlier this year. He has talent and we saw a glimpse of what he can produce last time when given a decent trip.

There are some wild cards in this field who merit consideration. Both Bal a Kazoo (#7) and Sir Lancelot (#10) have run fast speed figures on turf going shorter than this in out of town races. The former did meet a very talented runner last time at Keeneland, but he picks up Irad Ortiz and could get overbet. Sir Lancelot has plenty of speed, but he must overcome this wide draw in a race that does feature other frontrunners.

Just Beat the Odds (#9) has a license to handle turf. He’s already shown some ability on dirt, and his pedigree is full of turf influences. His dam won twice on turf, and she’s a half-sister to multiple stakes winning turf sprinter Belleski. Greg Sacco doesn’t have great statistics with horses trying turf for the first time, but he figures to be a fair price.

My top pick is Souzak (#4). This French-bred was a sprinter on turf in France as a 2-year-old, winning three in a row to conclude his juvenile season. He displayed excellent closing speed to win those two sprints in August and September of last year. Purchased for $392k at Arqana Saint-Cloud last year, he debuted for the new connections at Gulfstream, racing in a pair of turf route stakes. Yet those efforts perhaps exposed him as one that doesn’t want to go that far. He traveled keenly in both races, but failed to produce a finish. He’s now been off for a while, but returns for a trainer who does well off long layoffs. Graham Motion is 4 for 17 (24%, $4.35 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years, with 11 of those hitting the board.