Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Snowy Evening on the upswing in the Port Washington

Belmont at the Big A | Race 5 | Post Time 3:07 p.m. (ET)

Silver Skillet (#5) is obviously the one to beat in this Port Washington. She’s attempting to win her second New York-bred stakes in a row, and is going to take plenty of money based on her blowout victory in the Mount Vernon. However, that was a dirt race that was rained off the grass. While she is more of a turf horse overall, I think her talents might get overrated based on the last effort. Her turf races still make her a deserving favorite, but she’s not exactly a standout. She has run well against some tough competition, such as when she was fourth in the Pebbles last season, but she was a little disappointing coming off the layoff in April when working out a tough trip. She figures to play out as the main speed here.

Main rival Whatlovelookslike (#4) should at least try to keep the favorite honest on the front end. This mare does seem to perform best when she can work out a stalking trip, having won this race last year after contesting the pace throughout. She hasn’t been seen since trying a marathon in the Long Island late last season, but she’s capable of beating a group like this on her best day.

The short price that I’m against is Marvelous Maude (#1). We haven’t seen much of this mare over the last two seasons, making just one start in 2023 before returning from an 11-month layoff last time in the Plenty of Grace. She was a little wide throughout, but was still extremely disappointing, never looking like a threat. It’s possible that she’s just lost a step at the age of 6.

My top pick is Snowy Evening (#2). She obviously has to improve a bit to beat this field, but she’s been steadily rounding back into form since returning from the layoff this season. She was racing too close to the pace against open company off the layoff, and then wasn’t suited by the turnback to 6 furlongs two back. Yet those races seemed to move her forward, as she improved going a mile last time. She made a strong late rally to get up for second, closing into a glacial early pace. Her pace-upgraded 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive here. I don’t think she has to sit that far back in a compact field, and she possesses the sprint finish to make a serious run at the favorites if she’s within range at the quarter pole.