Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Silken Dollar getting back to appropriate distance

Belmont | Race 7 | Post Time 4:16 p.m. (ET)

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I don’t have a major argument against Moonage Daydream (#8) being the horse to beat in this statebred allowance. She showed talent as a 2-year-old, winning the Steward Manor last fall. She hasn’t won again in three starts since returning from a layoff earlier this year, but she’s made some mild progress each time, gradually improving her TimeformUS Figures. She’s a threat here with a repeat of the 106 she earned for her runner-up finish at this level last time. I do have some mild concerns about the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she’s obviously a contender.

One potential advantage that Moonage Daydream has over this field is her tactical speed in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. It’s one reason why I want to downgrade a confirmed deep closer like New Ginya (#3). I don’t love turf turnbacks like this in general, and she can be pretty pace dependent. Among the other late runners, the one I would be most willing to consider is Dream Central (#4), who did have to alter course when lacking a clear path in upper stretch last time. That was just her first start back off a layoff, and she did run well going this distance last year. However, she’s another who lacks any early speed.

I’m more interested in a couple of bigger prices who can attain more forward position. I imagine that Kendrick Carmouche will try to use Road to Remember (#1) from the inside this time. It didn’t quite work out in her last start when she was shuffled back soon after the start, but she does possess the speed to get forward. The big question for her is the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she’s a daughter of stamina influence Bellamy Road, so it’s very possible she could handle it.

My top pick is Silken Dollar (#7). This filly broke her maiden going this distance last spring at Belmont before trying both shorter and longer trips while switching surfaces during the remainder of the year. I think she’s confirmed at this point that she’s definitely a turf horse, but she appears to be one with some distance limitations. She was just barely able to get the mile when she hung on to win last November. She’s routed twice since returning from a layoff this season. She earned a competitive speed figure two back, and then didn’t get the chance to put forth a true effort last time. She got steadied and checked pretty badly in the early stages of that race, putting her out of position. She possesses better tactical speed than that, and I expect to see her get a more aggressive ride with Manny Franco hopping back aboard.