Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Samburu should get better trip cutting back
Belmont at the Big A | Race 9 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET)
The entry figures to attract support in this first-level allowance, but I can’t say that I’m thrilled with either half. Betterdaysrcoming (#1) was a mediocre handicap runner in Europe last year, and didn’t take that much money when he came off the layoff for Christophe Clement last time. He got a pretty good trip overall, saving ground, and couldn’t reel in a couple of horses that had already had plenty of chances at the level. Perhaps entrymate Ramblin’ Wreck (#1A) will pull in even more support, since he has been the workmate of Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. He ran well in some New York-bred stakes last season, but his form tailed off towards the end of the season. He’s now had some time to regroup and returns for a trainer who does well off layoffs.
I preferred individual betting interests. One to consider is Battle of Normandy (#5), who ran some nice races against tougher stakes foes last summer. He obviously deserves a pass for his return from the layoff on dirt, which he just doesn’t handle. Yet I do wonder if he might ultimately prefer a little more ground than this. Former McGaughey trainee Operation Torch (#3) just missed at this level last time in his first start off the layoff and trainer switch to Todd Pletcher. I didn’t see him have a major excuse in that spot, but he did at least get back to his better form while also getting over some quirks that bothered him earlier in his career. I view him as the horse to beat, but I don’t think he’s going to be some kind of enticing price.
Royal Spirit (#4) got a strange ride in that May 18 race, taken to the back of the pack to rail the field and running on belatedly. That felt like it might have just been a prep off the layoff, and then he came back in 9 days stretching out to 11 furlongs. They reversed the tactics that day, sending him to the front before he tired in the last furlong behind a runaway winner. I think he’s got a better performance in him, but it’s not like he’s ever been the most trustworthy win candidate.
My top pick is another also-ran from that May 27 race. Samburu (#9) finished only one position ahead of that rival checking in a non-threatening fifth that day. However, I really didn’t care for the ride he got from Tyler Gaffalione. Breaking from an outside post position, he settled 2-wide around the first turn but then Tyler allowed him to progress without cover outside, getting hung out in the 3-path on the clubhouse turn and then going 4-wide around the far turn. You can’t lose that much ground in a two-turn race. Prior to that, I thought he was finding his form for Mike Maker. Getting Irad Ortiz is a double-edged sword, since he’s likely to get a better trip but it’s also going to hurt the price. I still think he fits this race well and won’t be that short given the plethora of options in this wide open affair.