Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Risk Profile rounding into form, dropping to right level

Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

The 26-time winner Sevier (#4) figures to attract plenty of support as he drops in for this $32k tag. He’s been a fixture in Parx starter allowance races for Jamie Ness over the past couple of seasons, at times running some towering speed figures. More recently he’s come back down to Earth, though he has been getting the job done lately in some decent races at Delaware and Laurel. Now he’s making his first start in New York for a barn that has found the key to winning on this circuit. Ness had a poor record at NYRA for much of his training career, but he’s 5 for 18 (28%, $3.68 ROI) here over the past year. This gelding’s speed should play well here and he merits respect. Yet I think he’s facing a couple of legitimate rivals.

Glory Road (#1) is certainly dangerous is he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He ran very well in his return from the layoff for Orlando Noda two back, but was somewhat disappointing last time on the stretch-out to 7 furlongs. He can obviously rebound now that he’s going out for a sharp barn, but I wanted a different horse out of that Feb. 9 affair.

RISK PROFILE (#3) finished about a length ahead of Glory Road after putting in a nice stretch rally to get up for third. I didn’t love the ride from Jorge Vargas, as he dropped back racing along the rail on the far turn before rallying in the stretch in a race that was dominated towards the front end. I think he’ll be more effective here if Kendrick Carmouche can be more aggressive. He gets the distance and seems to be rounding back into form for Michelle Giangiulio.

THE PLAY

#3 RISK PROFILE, at 5-2 or greater