Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Rayya Valentine back in more realistic spot
Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:22 p.m. (ET)
Coppa Girl (#7) figures to be a heavy favorite in this N1X allowance race as she makes another attempt to break through at this level. She’s tried this condition 5 times, finishing second in 3 of those attempts, and third once. Her lone poor effort did come going this two-turn 9-furlong distance at Saratoga, but she had early trouble in that race and subsequently needed time off. She’s gotten back on form since then, but has now lost twice in a row as the favorite. She got a strong 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance two back, but horses have come back out of that race to regress. And she was one of them, as she didn’t run nearly as well cutting back to a mile last time, only managing third at 3-5 with no apparent excuse.
Among the alternatives, Toned Up (#1) obviously fits on form, having just finishing second at this level going 1 1/8 miles when last seen in late December. She’s just not really a winning type, having not won a race in over a year and often settling for minor awards. It’s also unclear if she’ll get the pace setup she needs without a clear frontrunner signed on. Perhaps some speed will come from her stablemate Essaouira (#1A), but I’m just not convinced she’s good enough to compete at this level after having little to offer against slightly tougher last time.
My top pick is Rayya Valentine (#2), and I’m hoping she gets an aggressive ride from this inside post position. I had some interest in her when she stepped up in the Ladies last time, but things just didn’t work out right from the start as she broke a step slowly and was always out of position. In retrospect that was also just too difficult a race for her first attempt against winners. This filly had run well to break her maiden two back, beating a few rivals who came back to run well in their subsequent starts. She got a good trip that day stalking a moderate pace, but I really liked the way she finished despite not changing leads, and she galloped out powerfully after the wire. This time Isaac Castillo is supposed to be aggressive from the rail. I like the distance for her and I believe she fits well against this group.