Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Pop a Choc’s pace advantage should enable her to stretch out

Belmont | Race 9 | Post Time 5:14 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

This boils down to a two-horse race between grey fillies Mrs. Danvers and Pop a Choc.

The former may possess more natural talent, but she’s become very difficult to trust. Mrs. Danvers (#2) looked poised to make her presence felt against stakes horses earlier this year after her encouraging return in which she chased home the accomplished older filly Indian Pride. However, her two performances since have signaled a slight regression. She lost as the 2-5 favorite when returning on short rest in that July 9 allowance event. She was undoubtedly compromised by a stumble at the start, but she then caused trouble for herself thereafter, getting too rank while attempting to rush up into traffic on the backstretch. I won’t hold her loss in the Grade 1 Test against her, and she will certainly appreciate this drop in class. However, I’m skeptical that she can get the one-mile distance given the tendencies she’s shown in recent starts.

I prefer her main rival POP A CHOC (#3). The Pace Projector is predicting that this filly will be in front in a situation favoring the early leader. No one else in this field possesses the speed to go with her, so John Velazquez should be able to dole out comfortable fractions. She, too, has to prove that she can handle added ground, but she’s shown enough stamina going 7 furlongs with more taxing pace scenarios. Her recent speed figures are slightly faster than those of Mrs. Danvers and if she merely holds her form I think she’s going to be difficult to run down.

THE PLAY

Win: 3

Exacta: 3 with 1,2,7

Trifecta: 3 with 2 with 1,4,7