Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Paros steps up off impressive maiden score

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:27 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

This starter optional claiming event came up unusually tough for the level, as it features two colts coming off very fast maiden victories. Mama’s Gold (#5) is perhaps the most intriguing runner in this field, as he exits a 21-length score in a $25k maiden claiming race. He earned a flashy 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which is the kind of number that would have made him competitive in the Gotham. Yet his connections have chosen this slightly softer spot as he makes his first start off the claim for Chad Summers. He did set a slow pace while riding a rail bias in that victory, so I’m a little skeptical that he can back it up.

I prefer the other favorite Toxic Gray (#6), who took some sneaky money to be 7-1 against a tough maiden special weight field last time. He had shown some potential in his debut against weaker and took a big step forward first time in the Mike Miceli barn off a private purchase last time. He was facing a highly touted first-time starter for the Brad Cox barn and outdueled that foe to win in fast time. I like the versatility that he’s displayed and think he’s the horse to beat.

I also want to consider both runners entered by Adam Rice. PAROS (#3) is my top pick. This horse has shown significant improvement since the trainer switch. He met a good field of maidens two back and didn’t run quite as poorly as it seems. Then last time he put it all together, beating an overmatched field of maiden claimers by nearly 14 lengths. His 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure is a bit lower than the favorites, but I like this gelding’s upward trajectory. He’s also shown the ability to rate off the pace.

I also wouldn’t dismiss Valenzan Day (#8) if the price is fair. He didn’t run well in the Jerome first off the claim last time, but he has some prior form sprinting that gives him a chance here, and now he’s getting Lasix for the first time.

THE PLAY

#3 PAROS, at 9-2 or greater