Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Outside draw perfect for Maximus Meridius in Gold Fever

Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:11 p.m. (ET)

Doncho (#3) stepped up against stakes company last time at Keeneland, having gained some notoriety at Fair Grounds following a couple fast, easy victories. However, his performance was fairly disappointing, as he never was able to challenge early leader Glengarry and ultimately faded off the board. That was perhaps a stronger race than this one, and he still earned a respectable 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet it’s fair to wonder if he was slightly overrated based on that Fair Grounds form against weaker company. Looking back in his TimeformUS PPs, each of his first two starts featured blue color-coded pace figures, indicating that he benefited from slow paces. He’s likely to encounter a more competitive scenario here with the TimeformUS Pace Projector placing him in front through a fast pace.

Having a horse like Billal (#4) drawn directly outside of Doncho doesn’t help that one’s cause, since this Bill Mott trainee possesses plenty of early speed. His 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned last time at Keeneland arguably makes him the one to beat if he can repeat it. However, he was very much with the flow of a track that was kind to speed in one-turn races. His prior form was solid but doesn’t exactly make him a standout in this field. As another horse with speed drawn in the middle of the pack, I’m a little concerned about the trip he has coming.

My top pick is Maximus Meridius (#8). While he also has plenty of early speed, he benefits from drawing the far outside post position, giving jockey Joel Rosario plenty of options. He’s also shown the ability to rate in the opening quarter mile of his races, so he should fall into a perfect stalking trip just off those inside speeds. He hasn’t won either of his starts on this circuit, but he ran well in both the Gotham and Bay Shore. He probably doesn’t really want to go a mile, but he held on well for fourth after contesting a strong pace in the slop two back. Then last time he made an early move to take over at the quarter pole, but that Bay Shore featured an extremely fast pace that fell apart. The top two finishers rallied from well back in the pack, and Maximus Meridius was the only speed horse to feature prominently in the finish.