Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Out On Bail's recent form better than it looks in Carle Place

Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:51 p.m. (ET)

Likely favorite Spiced Up (#6) will probably beat this field if he runs back to his Mahony-winning performance two back at Saratoga. Yet that is the only race in his past performances that makes him particularly formidable here. I'm generally willing to forgive horses for failing to show up at Kentucky Downs, but he was very disappointing in the Franklin-Simpson, and I'm reluctant to make too many excuses for a short-priced favorite. I see two intriguing alternatives.

Cairo Caper (#8) has primarily been focusing on longer races this year, but I like him turning back to a sprint here. He handled shorter distances effectively as a 2-year-old, and he's been making middle moves before flattening out in his recent starts around two turns. He actually ran a lot better than it looks in the Saranac last time after going wide on the second turn. This is the right spot for him, but I'm worried he could get another wide trip from this post position.

My top pick is Out On Bail (#1), who tried cutting back last time in the Franklin-Simpson after he was stretched out in the Penn Mile this summer. He actually ran deceptively well in the Penn National race, and he had a right to need his return last time. The Kentucky Downs effort was pretty good considering that he chased a fast pace that came apart and did so while never seeing the rail. I like him getting back to a sprint over a flat course, and he drew well inside with tactical speed