Belmont at the Big A | Race 2 | Post Time 1:37 p.m. (ET)   The two likely favorites both make plenty of sense in this maiden turf route. Orgonite (#3) has been knocking on the door at this level, improving with each start since getting on the turf in June. He found himself in a paceless race on July 4 but was finishing best of all in a speed-dominated race. He showed the ability to sit a bit closer to the pace next time and just ran out of ground when lunging at the winner late. That horse, Noble Confessor, did come back to finish second in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby two starts later. Then, last time, Orgonite found himself far off the pace. He was finishing best of all late, just running out of ground. He may finally be finding the right field here, but he should be a short price now that his form is exposed.   Dirand (#9) was closer to the pace in that same Aug. 28 race last time, but he also lacked Orgonite's late kick, getting nailed by that rival for third in the late stages. I was hoping to see more of a step forward for this horse, who did run well when just missing two back. He's a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Mile winner Uni, and I wonder if the added ground he's getting will suit him. Vintage Vino (#10) has had more chances than some others in this field, but he obviously handles the distance. He was compromised by a moderate pace that held together going too short last time. I don't love the post position for either of these horses, but this one should rebound. My top pick is Operation Overlord (#7), who got an interesting trip that same Aug. 28 race that a few of these are exiting. He actually broke with speed but was taken in hand as multiple horses were sent for the front end through some honest early fractions. He settled well and had decent position through the middle of the race. However, he got mildly shuffled back to the quarter pole and seemed to get discouraged along the inside into the lane. He was out of contention by that point, but he nevertheless found another gear in the last eighth, picking up his stride to finish with good energy across the wire. Based on that performance, I think he has more speed than he showed that day, and I expect Kendrick Carmouche to send him forward here in a potentially paceless race.