Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mongolian Panther better than her last race indicates

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 2:44 p.m. (ET)

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If you have confidence that Kitten’s Appeal (#4) will return to her dirt sprint form from earlier this season prior to the layoff, she is very much the horse to beat in this spot. She barely lost to Hot Fudge back in January, and that filly went on to do some nice things in the first half of this season. She was then chasing an honest pace in February in a race won by a deep closer. I won’t hold the turf effort against her where she also got off to a poor start. Bruce Levine is 5 for 24 (21%, $1.25 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs on dirt over 5 years, primarily doing well with short prices. I respect her form, but I didn’t want to take a short price considering the time away.

Virtual Reality (#1) could take money as she returns to dirt for Chad Brown. Yet I’m just not convinced that she’s quite good enough to compete at this level. She didn’t beat the strongest field when she broke her maiden in her only dirt sprint attempt earlier this year, and she took a while to get going that day. She subsequently settled for second in a couple of weak races at this level up at Saratoga perform improving a bit on turf last time. She doesn’t strike me as a horse who would appreciate going shorter on dirt, and I’m also concerned she’s going to get outrun in the early stages.

A new face to consider is Desert Dalliance (#6), who makes her first start off a trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez. The barn doesn’t have the best stats with this move, but she has run some competitive speed figures on occasion. She won going 9 furlongs over this surface last sprint, but showed herself to be proficient sprinting this distance two back at Parx. Her inconsistency is a concern, but she’s capable on her best day.

My top pick is Mongolian Panther (#5). She is obviously coming off a disappointing effort, where she finished behind two of today’s rivals on Nov. 5. Yet she didn’t get the best trip that day, as she was keen while racing in tight quarters along the rail early. Isaac Castillo, in trying to get her to settled, wrangled her back off the pace just as the leaders started to sprint for home. She was trying to accelerate late, but the pace had been slow, and the leaders had too much left in the tank. Her form prior to that clearly makes her the horse to beat in this spot. She ran well chasing the fast pace set by Portage two back going a distance that is probably too far for her anyway. A repeat of her 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance at Saratoga in August would clearly put her in the winner’s circle against this group.