Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Monarch should appreciate added distance

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET)

I’m not thrilled with two of the three fillies who could take money in this 9-furlong maiden special weight event. Both Just Music (#5) and Princess Vino (#6) have already had chances to break through against weaker fields than this. Just Music couldn’t get the job done as the 6-5 favorite in a maiden claiming race two back. She probably did improve out of that race first off the claim for Linda Rice last time. That was a decent performance at this level considering that she was racing in the 2- to 3-path against a rail bias. I still think she has limited upside in her sixth career start.

Princess Vino has faced New York-bred fields in all of her prior starts, and has been heavily supported each time without winning. She had significant trouble at the start of her debut and ran on well for third. However, she hasn’t really built on that performance in two subsequent outings. She’s a factor merely due to the relatively light field for this open company level, but I wanted others.

Todd Pletcher’s other entrant, Hot Candy (#1), also has much to prove, but at least she’s only a second-time starter. She was never really involved in her debut at Tampa, but she did seem to be hitting her best stride late. She has pedigree to be successful going longer as a half-sister to graded stakes-placed dirt router Cue the Moon. She just needs to improve significantly.

My top pick is another second-time starter. Monarch (#3) also finished far back on debut, but I don’t think she has to improve nearly as much as some others in this field. That was a strong and fast race for the level, from which third-place finisher Daughter of Time has already returned to win, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 5 points. Monarch earned a competitive 84 figure for that race, receiving an upgrade due to the fact that she was contesting a very fast pace. While she faded in the lane, I think she’s going to be more comfortable going longer. She’s by excellent route influence Tapit, and these types often tend to relax more on the front end going two turns. She goes out for a dangerous barn and might not be favored despite possessing the most upside of anyone in here.