Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Miss Kristy still has upside getting back on turf
Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 4:36 p.m. (ET)
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Dontmesswithtess (#10) may go favored here as she attempts to get back to the winner’s circle for the first time since she was claimed out of a winning effort by Mike Maker in January. Her form has been heading in the right direction recently, and she ran one of her best races last time in defeat. Racing over a rain-softened course, Irad Ortiz Jr. made a premature move to lead at the top of the stretch before proving vulnerable to a rival who was ridden more patiently. She makes sense, but she won’t be much of a price and I’m not convinced she necessarily gets better with more distance.
Among her main rivals is Diamond Status (#8), who steps up in class off a maiden victory, though that performance stacks up very well against this field. The race got a TimeformUS Race Rating of 98, matching that of today’s race, suggesting this really isn’t much of a class hike in terms of field quality. She also was much the best on that occasion, surviving a fast pace to kick on again in deep stretch and hold off two late-runners. It did take this filly 14 attempts to win her maiden, but she was overmatched in a number of those races and has generally run well when she’s gotten the chance to route on turf.
My top pick is Miss Kristy (#7). There appears to be some speed signed on here, and we have seen plenty of races on the turf courses this week going to closers even when it doesn’t appear there’s a ton of speed on paper. Miss Kristy is a late-runner who has to improve a bit on her prior speed figures to contend against a field of this quality. Yet I really liked the way she was progressing through the first half of this year. She gamely ran on for second at Tampa in February, and that was the day the light bulb seemed to turn on. She won her next two starts, including her first attempt against winners in May, with a strong late kick. She was closing into a quick pace on that occasion, but she figures to get another good setup here. She’s going to be a price for lower-profile connections and I think she still has upside.