Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Midnight Trouble rounding into form for Morley
Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET)
Olympic Dreams (#5) should be tough for this field to handle if he runs his best race. While he’s stepping up to an N2X allowance optional claimer off an N1X victory, he really isn’t facing a much tougher field than last time. The preliminary TimeformUS Race Rating of 113 for this field compared to 116 for his last race suggests that it might actually be a softer spot. Yet I have a few issues with this horse. His supporters got $12 when he won last time, and now he’s going to be a fraction of that price. He also hasn’t been the most consistent sort through recent months, so it’s fair to question whether he can reproduce that last effort. Furthermore, his worst recent effort came over a muddy track two back, and there is precipitation in the forecast ahead of Sunday’s card.
If each of these horses produce their best efforts, the main rival for the favorite should be Good Skate (#3), who produced a performance two back at this level that would make him tough for this field to handle. However, he completely fell apart last time. He was sitting on top of a slow pace and just went backwards heading into the far turn, basically eased late. It’s probably a good sign that he’s coming back without a layoff, but he certainly has some questions to answer.
A wet track should suit I Am the Law (#1), who has done his best running over surfaces with moisture in the ground. He obviously needed his return from the layoff two back when facing a pretty tough field for the level. He took a big step in the right direction last time, chasing outside over the kind of track he prefers. If he moves forward again here he should be competitive in this spot.
However, it’s not clear to me that the aforementioned contender performed any better than longshot Midnight Trouble (#7) in that Dec. 10 optional claimer. Whereas I Am the Law was racing out in the clear throughout, Midnight Trouble was never in a comfortable spot inside. Apprentice Luis Rivera gave a somewhat indecisive ride, trying to secure a position inside of the leader but never really committing to that spot. He got through inside coming to the quarter pole but was always glued to the rail, which might not have been the best place to be. He finished with good interest considering the trip. The 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned was far and away the best number of his career, suggesting that he may have really improved going the longer trip on dirt. The form of that race has held up, since winner Quality Chic came back to just miss at a big price in the Queens County last week. I like that Midnight Trouble is drawn outside this time, and he figures to outrun his odds.