Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Lotsa Trouble better than last result indicates
Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:50 p.m. (ET)
It’s pretty obvious that Brick Ambush (#3) is the horse to beat as a likely heavy favorite in this optional claiming allowance affair. He was unlucky to get disqualified out of a lucrative paycheck in that controversial stakes two back but still ran well to be second. That 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure stands up to scrutiny, since most of the runbacks from that race have been solid. Brick Ambush did regress a bit last time when losing a race at this level at a short price, but he was beaten by a pretty good rival in Doc Sullivan. He also may have found the one-mile distance to be a bit far for him, and now he cuts back to a sprint. He’s the most likely winner, but he figures to be a very short price and I think there is at least one interesting alternative.
Some will look to horses like Allied Attack (#2) and Always a Warrior (#6) as possibilities, but I’m not thrilled with either of those options. Allied Attack took advantage of a track bias when he broke his maiden last time and needs further improvement to get on terms with the favorite. Always a Warrior disappointed in the slop last time, but he might catch another wet track on Sunday.
My top pick is Lotsa Trouble (#5). This horse actually exits the same race as Brick Ambush on Jan. 19, but finished 17 lengths behind that rival. However, the result should not be taken at face value. Lotsa Trouble got an impossible trip over a heavily rail-biased racetrack. He was wide every step of the way and racing out of position, placed too far off the pace trying to make up ground in the middle of the track. The margin of defeat might seem alarming, but his result was in line with other horses who got similar trips on that card. He had run well to break his maiden two back in the slop, earning an 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure despite spending time towards the inside on a day when the rail path was a disadvantage. He’s better than his overall form suggests, and now he cuts back to an appropriate distance while catching his preferred wet surface.