Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Level Up returns from layoff against suspect group
Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:27 p.m. (ET)
It’s hard to have much confidence in any of the short prices in this $20k maiden claimer. Cavendish (#3) will probably go off favored in this spot as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He has faced vastly superior competition in all three of his prior starts, but his form has been trending downward and the connections are basically just giving away this once promising colt. Making his first start off the trainer switch from Bob Baffert to Brittany Russell last time at Parx, he was hustled early and just went backwards. Russell is 9 for 43 (21%, $1.06 ROI) with 3-year-old and older runners going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races over 5 years. These types can win, but are often overbet.
I’m even more skeptical of the other horse trying a maiden claiming race for the first time. Hazon (#7) makes the drop for Todd Pletcher after a pair of lackluster efforts at Gulfstream both on dirt and synthetic. This horse has a strange auction history, selling for $350k as a yearling to China Horse Club and partners before going for an even greater price tag, $450k, when bought outright by the same owner over a year later as an unraced 2-year-old in November 2022. That investment in this horse clearly hasn’t panned out, and now he’s dropping to this bottom level.
Among those who have already raced for tag, Dudley Dickerson (#6) is the proven commodity with solid recent form. However, he’s tough to endorse as an 0 for 17 maiden who has already had his fair share of chances at short prices.
My top pick is Level Up (#1). This 4-year-old gelding returns from a layoff for new trainer Jack Abrams, who claimed him out of a $16k maiden claimer last summer at Monmouth. The horse ran incredibly well that day, overcoming one of the worst stumbles at the start that you’ll ever see before gathering himself to rally for second, just missing by a neck. He obviously came out of the race with some kind of issue to be gone for so long, but I do like that they’re bringing him back in this spot, where he is utilizing the claiming tag waiver. This horse faced much tougher company early in his career, but ran well in both of his dirt routes at this level last season. It’s also interesting that Andrew Wolfsant is coming in to ride, this being his only mount of the day.