Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Jerry's Out stretches back out in improved form
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:30 p.m. (ET)
The two horses likely to attract the most support in this first-level allowance optional claimer still have some major questions to answer. Uncaged (#1) would have been a heavy favorite if he were coming into this race off his debut victory, in which he defeated a strong field last summer at Saratoga. However, his return earlier this month at Gulfstream was quite disappointing, as he got outrun early and never was able to mount a rally. It does seem a little strange that Todd Pletcher brought him back at 6 furlongs, since he has such a strong pedigree to stretch out. He now gets his chance to contest a one-mile route distance, but there still has to be some concern about whether or not he's the same horse that was unveiled last summer. Pletcher adds blinkers, and the recent workouts don't inspire too much confidence.
Main rival Uncle Jim (#3) also has some stamina questions to answer as he tries to stretch back out after fading in a couple of route attempts earlier this winter. The loss to Cyclone State at this level second time out is particularly concerning since he was such a heavy favorite at this distance prior to racing for purse money only upon the late scratch of his entrymate. He rebounded when cut back to a sprint last time, but he was taking advantage of a track that was favorable to inside runners. He now makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but lands in a spot that features other speed.
A couple of rivals are exiting last-out maiden victories. On the Mount (#4) got a perfect trip setting a moderate pace when he won around two turns at Tampa last time. He was dismissed at big prices in both starts for a barn that typically attracts more support than that. He also won't get that same trip here. I find Toga d'Oro (#5) to be more appealing as he stretches out again off a 7-furlong maiden win earlier this month. He was beating a weaker field in that spot, but he did seem to figure things out as the race progressed. He still has upside in his third start, and should benefit from any pace that develops.
My top pick is Jerry's Out (#2), who gets another chance to stretch out on dirt after fading to third when he first tried this distance in mid-January. He might have lacked the foundation to tackle that distance after having never run farther than 6 furlongs on dirt in his prior starts. He also was ridden aggressively to the lead in a race where the pace ultimately came apart. He cut back last time and chased home today's rival Uncle Jim, but I thought he ran just as well as that winner after racing in the 2-path over a rail-biased track. He's bred to handle added ground, and he strikes me as a horse that doesn't need the lead to be successful.