Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Jerry the Nipper ready for open company in Artie Schiller
Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:42 p.m. (ET)
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It will be very interesting to see how much pace develops in this Artie Schiller. Last year’s winner of the race Big Everest (#4) is back looking to wire the field again, and he has proven that he needs to control up front to have his best chance. Therefore, the presence of Masen (#8) could be a thorn in his side, since he’s another who does his best running when he’s forwardly placed. Masen was pretty aggressive coming off the layoff going 6 furlongs at Woodbine, but he may have just needed that race for fitness. I’m not thrilled with the chances of either one. Big Everest has more recency, but I didn’t like the way he faded last time even after getting loose up front.
Pioneering Spirit (#1) is arguably the horse to beat, as he seeks to conclude a stellar 2023 season with another stakes victory. I don’t care much about his last race, where he beat one rival on dirt. Prior to that Linda Rice had twice tried to stretch him out to marathon trips against Grade 1 company, and he’s just not that kind of horse. His Bernard Baruch makes him a major player here, and I don’t mind the slightly shorter distance for him.
There are some new faces in this lineup stepping up out of allowance company. The most interesting of those might be Exact Estimate (#6), who didn’t get the best trip two back at Saratoga but has otherwise run consistently well in his surrounding turf starts. He comes out of a race where he made a decisive 3-wide rush to the lead off the far turn before the margin narrowed late. I like this shorter distance for him, but I’m a little worried he could get overbet for popular connections.
My top pick is Jerry the Nipper (#5). All of his stakes attempts have come against New York-bred company, but he’s faced some strong rivals in those races. Horses like City Man and Spirit of St. Louis would be among the favorites in this spot, and he’s been highly competitive against them. He just needs to get a better trip than last time, when Jose Ortiz was passive in the early stages, taking him off the pace in a race that lacked any real speed. He ended up getting pushed wide coming around the far turn, letting both of his primary rivals get the jump on him. He’s better than that result. His speed figures fit well here, and his versatile running style coupled with some additional pace signed on should ensure that he works out the right trip.