Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Highland Falls ready to play spoiler in Jockey Club Gold Cup
Saratoga | Race 12 | Post Time 6:15 p.m. (ET)
Arthur’s Ride (#7) announced his presence as a major force in the older dirt division when decisively winning the Grade 1 Whitney in early August. He had tipped his hand at being capable of such a performance in his prior start, when he defeated overmatched allowance foes by nearly 13 lengths. He improved on that effort last time, as Junior Alvarado gunned him out of the gate to set a much faster pace. Those enterprising tactics worked, as he opened up an insurmountable lead by the time the field hit midstretch. His paired up TimeformUS Speed Figures of 126 and 122 for those efforts are the two best numbers in the field this year. He likely won’t have to run as fast on the front end this time, which should make him even more formidable. He’s just going to be a very short price now that his form is totally exposed.
There are others in this field who will appreciate the 10-furlong distance. One of those is Tapit Trice (#1). He was considered a disappointment by the end of his 3-year-old season even though he ran pretty well in the Belmont and Travers, the latter with the addition of blinkers. Since that equipment has been added, he’s gotten better trips early in his races, including last time at Monmouth when he won so impressively from just off the pace. The extra furlong figures to suit him, but he does now have to overcome the rail draw as a horse who doesn’t always break that alertly.
I prefer Highland Falls (#6), who finished just behind Tapit Trice when they met in the Monmouth Cup. The margin was over five lengths at the wire, but I’m pretty confident the actual gap in ability between these two is much narrower. Highland Falls just got the wrong trip at every stage of the race. He broke on top and had an opportunity to control the pace, but his rider made a tactical error deciding to rein him in behind horses. From there he got caught in traffic, having to alter course a couple of times before finding a clear path too late. His prior form makes him competitive here, and I even think he ran better than it looks in his prior attempt at the distance in the Santa Anita Handicap. He gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat for this race and will finally be a fair price.