Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Frostelle can improve again in third start off layoff

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:44 p.m. (ET)

Roger Roger (#5) figures to be a heavy favorite in this maiden special weight after closing well for second behind the talented Sea Vista last time. Since getting purchased by new connections and transferred to Amelia Green, he's run three consecutive TimeformUS Speed Figures between 102 and 106. Those are the fastest numbers achieved by anyone in this race, and the most recent of those might not even fully represent his performance since he was wide against a rail bias. The only drawback is that his merits are fairly obvious, and you will have to swallow a short price on a horse who is still a maiden after 8 starts.

Pop Goes the Wiz (#3) ran pretty well to be third behind that rival at this level last time, but he benefited from a rail-skimming trip over a course favoring inside paths. Fateful Lightning (#4) returns from a brief layoff after outrunning his odds to finish third at this level last time. A repeat of that performance puts him in the mix, but I don't love him cutting back a furlong.

The horse I want to bet is Frostelle (#1), who may play out as the controlling speed from the rail. He chased the pace and faded two back, but that was his first start following a 17-month layoff. He took a big step forward in his second start of the form cycle last time. Not only did he improve his speed figure, finishing third, but he did so despite racing wide against a very strong rail bias on Feb. 4. I think he's better than that result and can improve again as he steps up third off the layoff. Ricardo Santana should take advantage of his apparent pace advantage.