Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Fireballin’s debut better than it looks
Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:40 p.m. (ET)
The two expected favorites in this first-level allowance for New York-breds are both dropping out of stakes events. Kenny Be (#2) might have a tactical advantage over his main rival since he possesses plenty of early speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be alone on the lead in a scenario favoring the frontrunner. He broke his maiden impressively in gate-to-wire fashion but then was forced to rate when he stepped up against winners in the Notebook. He was never beating the imposing filly Shoot It True, but he still stayed on gamely to secure second. He figures to get an aggressive ride from his inside draw, and appears to be the one to beat.
Soontobeking (#4) couldn’t catch Kenny Be for second when they met in the Notebook two back, perhaps compromised by a lack of pace in that spot. He got a much more favorable pace setup when he stretched out in the Great White Way division of the New York Stallion Series last time. However, the trip failed to work out for him. He dropped far back, as he usually does, and had built up a ton of momentum coming past the quarter pole. However, Javier Castellano made a tactical error by angling inside for the stretch drive, and the horse ran right into the backs of the tiring frontrunners. Soontobeking arguably might have won that lucrative stakes if not for that trouble. Now he drops in class and gets Lasix, but his lack of early speed could be more of a liability against this group.
George Weaver’s other runner Super Swift (#6) is mildly interesting getting back to dirt here. He won his debut on this surface, but that was a sloppy track in a race rained off the turf, so he’s never really been intended for dirt. He drew well outside and should appreciate turning back, but he does have some things to prove.
My top pick is Fireballin (#3). This well-bred son of rising New York sire Honest Mischief hails from the female family of stakes winner Seeking the Ante. His dam’s only other foal to race is the multiple stakes winner Fingal’s Cave, so he’s bred to turn into a nice runner. This colt got dismissed at 7-1 on debut here last month but delivered a nice effort that was even better than the three-quarter-length margin of victory suggests. He broke slowly but smoothly advanced along the inside to race into contention by the time the field hit the far turn. He traveled strongly in behind the leaders and produced a nice kick when wheeled outside in the stretch. I expect him to be more forwardly placed here provided a clean start, and that should lead to an improved performance.