Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Favor should appreciate switch to turf
Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | Post Time 2:07 p.m. (ET)
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Faith in Humanity (#1) figures to be a heavy favorite as she returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. This filly has done little wrong in her career, winning 3 of 4 starts with her only loss coming to stablemate Gina Romantica in last year’s Riskaverse. She subsequently turned the tables on Gina Romantica in the Pebbles, with the benefit of a favorable pace setup. The form of that race was flattered when Gina Romantica returned to win the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. The issue for Faith in Humanity is that she has managed to make only one start in the year since then, and that came over 6 months ago at Gulfstream. She achieved her second career Grade 3 victory in that Honey Fox, but arguably ran the second-best race, as White Frost was catching her late after getting held up in traffic. This filly will be a handful if she returns in top form, but I think she’s a little overrated due to two perfect trips in a row.
It's hard for me to build a case for any of the other runners with turf form to upset her. Messidor (#2) ran some nice races in 2022, but her form this year has been subpar. Traffic Song (#5) has earned some decent speed figures, but seems to do her best running at Gulfstream. She also has a similar style to the favorite, which could make her trip difficult. Takntothecleaners (#3) is a little more interesting, since she brings solid form from the Midwest and figures to get overlooked for unfamiliar connections. She would just need to produce a career-best to beat this field.
Looking for an alternative, I’m more intrigued by the first time turfer Favor (#6). This filly obviously has quality, having achieved a Grade 2 placing in the Fair Grounds Oaks as a 3-year-old. Her form since then has been a little inconsistent, but I’m intrigued by her getting this surface change. The pedigree for grass isn’t overwhelming, but it’s there. Pioneerof the Nile is a solid 13% turf route influence. The dam never tried turf, but she is a full sister to Bianco Tartufo, a turf winner who was stakes-placed on grass. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher has strong stats with this move. According to DRF Formulator, he is 9 for 37 (24%, $3.40 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time in allowance turf routes over the past 5 years. Included among the winners in that sample are future Grade 1 winners Colonel Liam and Up to the Mark.