Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Detective Tom should handle dirt in Bertram Bongard

Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:49 p.m. (ET)

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El Grande O (#3) is obviously the horse to beat in this Bertram F. Bongard off his narrow defeat in the Funny Cide last time out. He put in a game effort that day, just getting nipped by favorite The Wine Steward at the wire after leading for most of the race. He was very interesting at 10-1 odds that day off his deceptively strong performance in the off-the-turf Skidmore just one week prior. His TimeformUS Speed Figures of 105 and 97 for those performances make him a deserving favorite against today’s rivals. Yet now his form is fully exposed, and the value may lie elsewhere with those who possess more upside.

Aggelos the Great (#2) ran an improved race to break his maiden just 10 days ago, but now his connections are wheeling him back on very short rest against a tougher field. He could attract some support for George Weaver, but I’m more interested in horses drawn to the outside.

Skyler’s Starship (#4) put in an improved effort when switched to dirt in his second start, displaying improved early speed before gamely battling back inside of the reliable Mischief Joke. That runner-up does have some hang in him, but I still liked the way Skyler’s Starship finished going this 7-furlong distance. That edge in experience at the trip could give him an advantage here, and he earned a solid speed figure for that effort.

My top pick is Detective Tom (#6). This colt debuted on turf at Saratoga and didn’t attract much support from the bettors, getting dismissed at nearly 8-1. Some of that may have been due to his lack of turf pedigree. The Factor is obviously a decent influence, but there isn’t much turf breeding on the dam’s side. The horse had actually worked quite well on the dirt leading up to that debut. His Aug. 16 gate workout was particularly impressive, as he easily drew clear of a workmate. I wonder if the connections entered him on grass thinking the race might come off the turf, especially given the weather situation at Saratoga. He showed good speed and gameness to dig in for the victory that day. Now they immediately switch him over to dirt for his second start, and I think we could see an improved performance on this surface.