Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Crypto Mama has pace advantage on slight turnback

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET)

Portage (#8) is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from a brief layoff. She’s really come to hand since the trainer switch to Linda Rice in the middle of last year. She defeated a next-out winner when she broke her maiden at Saratoga, and then might not have appreciated the cutback to 6 furlongs when she first tried winners in August. She got back on track last time stretching out to a mile, contesting a strong pace, and doing well to put the other speeds away before holding off closers. Now she steps up against tougher, and I suppose it’s fair to question whether she’ll be ready to deliver a top effort off the layoff. Yet she appears to be working well for the return and is drawn well outside her main pace rival.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Crypto Mama (#6) will set the pace again, as she has in her last two starts for the Rudy Rodriguez barn. It also registers this race as favoring frontrunners, which would benefit this improved 4-year-old filly. She has really taken her game to a new level since the trainer switch. Her effort two back represented a significant step forward, as she set a strong early pace dueling with eventual winner Comparative. It was no disgrace losing to that rival, who came back to win the Ladies with a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Crypto Mama tried to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in her most recent start and it just looked like the distance was too much for her. I prefer her cutting back to a mile here, and the addition of blinkers suggests she’s going to get another aggressive ride. It also wouldn’t hurt if the track was tilted towards inside paths again, as it was on Thursday and Friday of this week.

I’m a little concerned that other contenders I might consider will be compromised by the projected race flow. Spiked (#1) has been forwardly placed on occasion, but she has questions to answer returning from a layoff. John Terranova does have strong statistics with these types, and I would use her underneath if she’s a generous price. The same goes for Into Happiness (#3), who probably didn’t want 9 furlongs last time when she was taken out of her typical style to apply pressure to Crypto Mama. She figures to return to closing tactics here and Trevor McCarthy seems to be in tune with the way the track has been playing this week.