Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Cicciobello’s speed makes him dangerous in Evan Shipman
Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:15 p.m. (ET)
A case can be made for just about every runner in this Evan Shipman, so I don’t want to settle for a short price on likely favorite Donegal Surges (#5). This horse is coming into this race in great form off a good second-place finish to the classy Drake’s Passage in the Commentator last time. That was going 9 furlongs, but he’s sprinted effectively in the past, so this one-mile trip should be perfect for him. He just got such a good trip last time stalking the leader in a merry-go-round race, and I wouldn’t necessarily take a short price based on any of his prior efforts.
Others coming out of the Commentator include Sheriff Bianco (#1) and Whittington Park (#6), both of whom have a chance to turn the tables on the favorite. Sheriff Bianco almost lost his rider when he stumbled at the start of that race, and he hasn’t gotten the best trips or pace setups in two subsequent races. Whittington Park will be at the mercy of how much pace develops here, but he’s capable of running races that can beat this field on his best day.
There are a few horses who could contest the early pace here, but the TimeformUS Pace Projector is still predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners. That’s likely due to the fact that Maker’s Candy (#4) appears to have lost his early speed recently, and Bank Frenzy (#3) doesn’t always break sharply, making him a bit of a wild card from a pace standpoint.
My top pick is the projected early leader Cicciobello (#2). This horse might look a cut below the top contenders at first glance, but he’s run some speed figures that put him squarely in the mix. He was competitive with the aforementioned Drake’s Passage last summer going this distance at Belmont, earning a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Notably, that was his third start off a layoff and his second dirt race after a turf prep, which is the same pattern coming into this race. His form has been up and down since then, but his last race is better than it looks. He was kept one or two paths off the rail throughout on a day that featured the strongest rail bias of the entire meet. That was also a race that featured a total pace collapse. He’s better than that, and can rebound here at a price.