Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Bernie Goes Boom better than modest speed figures suggest

Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:42 p.m. (ET)

Sunday Gilt (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat in this $32k claimer. Most 3-year-olds who win maiden special weight races don’t make their first start against winners in a claiming race. Jeremiah Englehart actually entered and scratched him from Saturday’s Gander Stakes, in which he would have been a longshot. While it’s an unconventional move to bypass allowance company altogether, this is a logical spot for a homebred who has never run particularly fast. The 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his lone victory last time is the best number coming into this race by some ways, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat. I just have some reservations due to the lack of confidence being displayed by connections.

Among the chief rivals is Revivalism (#6), who also broke his maiden last time out, doing so against $25k statebred maiden claiming company. That makes this open claiming race more of a logical next step for a horse who has been in decent form lately. He ran better than it looks two back when he botched the start and passed rivals to finish fourth. He has shown better tactical speed in his surrounding starts and figures to be part of the pace here for a trainer who has sent out nothing but live runners at this meet.

My top pick is another horse exiting a maiden victory who figures to be a much bigger price. Bernie Goes Boom (#7) is unlikely to attract much support off his modest 65 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which he earned for a victory against $20k maiden claimers last time. He won by only 1 3/4 lengths, but he was much the best as a heavy favorite. He traveled well in behind the leaders and got stuck in traffic for much of the far turn, waiting for room before getting tipped outside at the quarter pole. He rallied past the leaders with ease in a comfortable win, looking very much like a horse who has more to offer over route distances. He had run better than it looks two back when never seeing the inside path over a heavily rail-biased surface, and he should have won on Dec. 8 after getting an unfair start. This horse is better than his past performances indicate, is coming off an improved workout, and should be a fair price on the rise in class.