Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Be Inspired can improve stretching out for new connections
Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:38 p.m. (ET)
The two fillies who finished second and third at this level on Feb. 15 figure to vie for favoritism here. Patty Van Twinkle (#3) is arguably more trustworthy going this one-mile distance, having won over this trip with a competitive 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure two back. She did take advantage of a very good trip on that occasion, but she came back to validate the form last time when stepped up to this level. She's obviously moved forward since the claim by Mike Maker, but now she's going to be a very short price as the obvious horse to beat with exposed form.
Main rival The Big Calhouna (#5) arguably ran just as well as the favorite when fading to third last time. Yet that was 7 furlongs, and she was shortening stride in the late stages going that distance. Her one prior attempt at this one-mile distance was a disaster. She's clearly a better horse now, especially since the claim by Rick Dutrow. I just have some reservations about her getting this distance at a short price.
One horse who should have no problem with the one-mile distance is Yo Leven (#4), who just broke her maiden going that far by nearly 17 lengths. She wasn't beating much facing $20k maiden claimers, but she seemed to step forward stretching back out in distance. She also ran better than it appears in her prior one-mile dirt start in January when chasing home the improved Soundbite. She's claimed away from a sharp barn, but is picked up by Fernando Abreu, who himself has very good statistics first off the claim.
My top pick is another horse making her first start off the claim. Be Inspired (#6) goes out for Horacio De Paz, who doesn't have especially strong numbers first off the claim. Yet De Paz does do well with stretch-outs, going 20 for 112 (18%, $2.03 ROI) with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt over 4 years, and he's also 11-for-62 (18%, $2.55 ROI) with non-maidens within that sample. This filly obviously needs to improve, but I didn't think she got a particularly good trip last time. She was away awkwardly, traveled inside on the turn, and then encountered traffic when attempting to angle out at the quarter pole. She didn't find a clear path until late and actually finished with some interest. Furthermore, she spent a significant portion of her trip on the rail, which probably wasn't the place to be on Feb. 9. She had no problem handling 7 furlongs on debut, and I think she's a horse who wants to go this route distance. She draws well outside this time, and gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche.