Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Bad Boy Butch’s speed makes him dangerous stretching out

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 5:07 p.m. (ET)

The Sanford Goldfarb entry figures to be a decisive favorite in this finale, as both halves appear to be contenders. True Connection (#1) is making his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts, whose barn has gone a little quite over the past few months. Yet this horse has run plenty of races that make him competitive against this field, and only just dropped down to this bottom level in his last start. He was just supposed to get the job done that day as the favorite, and I’m concerned that his form is heading in the wrong direction. He will have to turn the tables on his stablemate Very Satisfactory (#1A), who shouldn’t mind stretching back out to 9 furlongs here after arguably running the best race of his career at that distance two back. He figures to be finishing strongly, but he’s been content to settle for minor awards in the past, and he may not get his preferred pace setup here. The fact that he has top connections in his corner – Brad Cox and Manny Franco – will also drive down the price of this entry.

Fluff the Pillow (#8) is a wild card as he returns from another freshening after coming back off an even longer layoff last time at Laurel. He lacked any early speed in that 7-furlong affair and was never a factor over a muddy track. He still should have gained some fitness from that performance, and now he’s returning stretching out around two turns for the first time. He runs like a horse who should appreciate added ground, but he does have to overcome this outside draw.

My top pick is Bad Boy Butch (#3), who looks to continue a hot streak for trainer Greg Sacco. He put in a good effort at this level three back when dueling to the wire after chasing the pace going a mile in the slop. He subsequently disappointed against tougher, but ran better than it looks last time when dropped back down to this level. That pace was fairly honest and was conservatively ridden through the lane after getting surrounded at the quarter pole. He’s a gigantic son of Outwork who strikes me as one that just wants to gallop along at one pace. Those types tend to be more effective around two turns where the paces are more moderate. He should be quick enough to make the lead under Christopher Elliott, and I expect his stamina will kick in late.