Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Backside Buzz can rebound off the claim for new barn
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 12:10 p.m. (ET)
Cold as Hell (#3) looks like the one to beat in this opener even as he takes on a pair of coupled entries. This 7-year-old has been in the best form of his career over his last couple of starts. He beat a weaker group at the $16k claiming level two back, earning a solid 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he followed that up with a narrow loss to Secret Rules, who was winning for the third time in his last 5 starts. He's now stepping up in class again as he goes first off the claim for Rob Atras, but he appears to fit well with this group. The main question is whether he can hold his form for a new barn, since he’s been in some of the top claiming stables on the circuit when producing those last two efforts.
Between the two coupled entries, I slightly prefer the Sanford Goldfarb pair, which is led by Magnificent Mile (#1A). This Wayne Potts trainee is dropping back down in class after catching much tougher fields at the N1X allowance level in his last couple of starts. He ran very well two back going a distance that is probably too far for him, making the first move into a fast pace before fading. Then last time he was outrun from the inside after breaking a step slowly and did well to rally for fourth behind superior rivals. Drawing outside again should suit him, and this seems like a realistic level.
There is some speed in this field, primarily from the pair of Magnolia Midnight (#2) and Dangerous Ride (#2B), but both may struggle to keep up with a quick pace over this sprint distance. The former is more comfortable over longer distances, and the latter has never been successful as a frontrunner. They’re shown leading on the Pace Projector, but I would expect another rival to get a more aggressive ride.
Backside Buzz (#6) was unable to make the lead through a quick opening quarter mile last time. He broke from an inside post position and seemed to get mildly discouraged chasing behind foes around the turn. The field got pretty strung out approaching the wire and Irad Ortiz just eased him late. He had run much better than that in his prior starts, particularly two back when wiring a pretty good field at this level. He runs his best races when he is able to make the front, and I have to think that Christopher Elliott will ride him aggressively here. I am also intrigued by him making his first start for Michael Catalano, who is 12 for 49 (24%, $2.03 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 2 years. Furthermore, going back 5 years, Catalano is a remarkable 8 for 21 (38%, $5.11 ROI) with all starters on dirt at NYRA tracks.