Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Arro Smash has upside in second start
Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET)
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I’ll be interested to see how they bet this race coming off the turf. It feels like a spot where a few of the horses entered for turf could take money, but I much prefer those drawn toward the outside, focusing on the MTOs. There might be a temptation to default to a horse like Sedona Red (#8), who I actually thought was interesting on grass. He comes in with some of the best recent dirt figures, but those came over sealed racetracks in Florida. I suspect he’s more of a turf-inclined type, and I’m skeptical he can transfer that form to a harrowed track. Among those entered for turf Atlantic Dancer (#10) is more appealing, but he’s already had his fair share of chances.
Koops (#11) will be the bigger price of the two MTO entrants, but I have some concerns about him going this distance off the long layoff. Joe Sharp does have good stats with horses off breaks like this, but he faded significantly on debut at Churchill Downs. The track profile may have been somewhat against him that day, but it’s still a race where I’m not sure we learned much about the horse. I won’t be surprised if he does better here, but I prefer the other MTO.
I thought Arro Smash (#12) showed some likeable qualities in that debut effort at Ellis Park. It was yet another race at that meet which was dominated toward the front end, and this gelding appeared to be learning on the job after breaking slowly. He had trouble keeping up down the backstretch but started to pick up his stride coming around the far turn. He was ready to make a run in the lane, but had to alter course multiple times down to the rail trying to find a clear path. I liked the way he was staying on in the latter stages, like one who will be suited by this slight stretch-out in distance. Now he’s drawn the outside post position, so kickback shouldn’t be as much of an issue and he gets a rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione.