Sugary's main rival is Father Time

ARCADIA, Calif. – Do the numbers add up? If so, finding winners should be simple Friday at Santa Anita. But in handicapping and betting, favorable numbers are often accompanied by figures that are less supportive.

Take, for example, likely favorite Sugary in the first race. The veteran mare enters the $25,000 claiming turf mile with the highest Beyers and a reliable career history. Sugary has won five of the six races in which she was favored.

Furthermore, the recent fourth-place finish by Sugary was better than it looks. Racing at the same class level as Friday, over the same distance and course, late-runner Sugary ran well despite compromising conditions as the pacesetter led gate to wire. Sugary rallied against the grain, on the inside, and missed by only a length and a half.

Friday’s opener looks good for Sugary, including a pace scenario that benefits her style. Jonathon Wong trains Sugary, jockey Umberto Rispoli replaces Kent Desormeaux. Her main rival is Miss Flawless, who will get first run but repeatedly finishes behind Sugary. The truth is, Sugary enters with only two apparent knocks.

The first is price – low odds may or may not justify the risk. A second concern is equally subjective. Sugary is a 9-year-old, an age bracket winless by her and six others this winter, including five that started at odds under 4-1. A small-sample glitch? Perhaps.

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Sugary may succeed where every other 9-year-old this meet has not. Those include Cleopatra’s Strike, French Getaway, Camino Del Paraiso, Cordiality, Frontier Market, and Jan’s Reserve.

The most probable winner Friday could be 1-for-17 Cosmo in the third race, a nonwinners-of-two starter at a mile and one-eighth on turf. Cosmo’s 23.42 final quarter last out at a mile is the fastest recent rally. The knock? In seven starts beyond a mile, Cosmo either lost position or lost ground and was farther behind at the finish than the quarter pole.

Cosmo remains the choice for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Flavien Prat, but Street Ruckus dominated a maiden-claiming race last out like a gelding who can fire right back. Street Ruckus seeks a repeat with a highly favorable trainer statistic. The past three months, Vladimir Cerin is 7 for 10 with last-out winners.

The featured sixth race on Friday’s seven-race card is an entry-level allowance at a mile and a sixteenth on dirt. Speed figures suggest Soy Tapatio will be tough, having wired maidens with a 93 Beyer last out. Seven of the 13 dirt races this meet at a mile and a sixteenth or farther were won by the pacesetter.

However, Soy Tapatio might face additional pressure Friday from Mongolian Ford and Holden the Lute. If the pace is contested, blinkers-on, first-time gelding Memo Daddy could spring an upset.