Strong Tide sharp but faces tall task in Louisville Stakes

On paper, it was an allowance/optional-claiming race on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. But the $124,000 race included multiple graded stakes winner Spooky Channel, winner of the Grade 3 John B. Connally Turf Cup earlier this year, and Ever Dangerous and Temple, both Grade 3-placed early this season.

It was Strong Tide, a three-time stakes winner in his native Indiana last year for trainer Mike Lauer, who prevailed in that event for his second straight win. The colt now faces even tougher competition in Saturday’s Grade 3, $150,000 Louisville Stakes at Churchill Downs, including the imposing presence of Grade 1 winner and multimillionaire Arklow.

“That’s a big, big step up in competition,” Lauer said. “It’s a very competitive race.”

The Louisville goes as the last of 11 races Saturday, with a post time of 5:58 p.m. Following that, Churchill Downs will screen the Preakness Stakes from Pimlico, scheduled for 6:47, on its massive infield video board.

In his allowance victory, Strong Tide set a moderate pace under Luis Saez, repelled a bid from Ever Dangerous, and then kicked on down the lane to easily hold off a closing Spooky Channel for a 1 3/4-length victory. Although that race was 1 1/8 miles, Strong Tide scored his previous win going 1 9/16 miles at Oaklawn. Lauer selected the Louisville for its 1 1/2-mile distance.

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With Saez riding at Pimlico, Marcelino Pedroza picks up the mount on Strong Tide, who drew post 4 in the full field of 14. If Strong Tide goes to the front he is likely to find company from graded stakes winner Admiralty Pier. Drawn in the outside post, Admiralty Pier set the pace in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer last fall at Woodbine before finishing third behind Canadian champion Say the Word. In his first start since, Admiralty Pier led early and was second by three-quarters of a length in a Keeneland allowance.

Lauer says Strong Tide does not need the lead.

“Luis saw there was no pace, and he took it, and nobody went with him,” he said. “That just happened. He’ll run wherever you put him. He’s pretty easy.”

Favored Arklow is likely to stalk the pace. He will be making his first start since winning the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup in late November at Del Mar, just missing a course record for 1 1/2 miles while defeating Say the Word. Arklow also won the Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup, and was second by a head in the Louisville in a strong 2020 campaign. His biggest victory came in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont in fall 2019.

Imperador and Fantasioso, both Group 1 winners in their native Argentina looking for their first win in the U.S., are both coming off a solid effort at Keeneland. Fantasioso’s first start in the U.S. came when fourth in the Grade 2 Elkhorn behind Say the Word, subsequent Grade 1 winner Channel Cat, and Crafty Daddy. The latter, a stakes winner last September at Churchill, also returns for the Louisville, as does sixth-place finisher Red Knight, winner of the Grade 3 Sycamore last fall at Keeneland.

Imperador improved position late to be fourth in an allowance behind Midnight Tea Time and Bye Bye Melvin, both of whom go in the Grade 2 Dinner Party on the Preakness undercard.

Graded winners Spooky Channel and Fighting Seabee finished behind Strong Tide last out. Spooky Channel was the only runner entered for the $80,000 tag in that race, and was claimed. He starts here for new trainer Jason Barkley.