Strong home team holds the advantage in Japan Cup

A foreign-trained horse has not won the Grade 1 Japan Cup at Tokyo Racecourse since Alkaased from Britain scored by a nose at 9-1 in 2005.

The home team has not always faced foreign competition in recent years, but will have that threat on Sunday with the presence of 2024 European Group 1 winners Auguste Rodin, Fantastic Moon, and Goliath.

Even with those credentials, the invaders may not be able to beat the Japanese-based 3-year-old filly Cervinia or 5-year-old horse Do Deuce.

As of Thursday, Cervinia and Do Deuce were the leading choices with British bookmakers, with odds ranging from 5-2 to 4-1. The other 12 runners, led by Auguste Rodin and Goliath, were 5-1 or higher in an evolving market.

The $7.02 million Japan Cup is run on a left-handed course at 1 1/2 miles. Post time is 1:40 a.m. Eastern on Sunday, or 10:40 p.m. Saturday Pacific.

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Cervinia, a winner of 4 of 6 starts, won her only previous start at 1 1/2 miles, in the Grade 1 Japanese Oaks on May 19 at Tokyo Racecourse. In her only subsequent start, Cervinia won the Grade 1 Shuka Sho for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/4 miles by 1 3/4 lengths on Oct. 13 at Kyoto Racecourse.

Do Deuce has attractive credentials. Fourth in the 2023 Japan Cup, he rebounded to win the Grade 1 Arima Kinen at 1 9/16 miles at Nakayama Racecourse last December.

After finishing fifth in the Group 1 Dubai Turf in the United Arab Emirates in March and sixth in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen as the favorite at Kyoto, Japan, in June, Do Deuce rebounded to win a key prep race for the Japan Cup – the autumn running of the Grade 1 Tenno Sho at 1 1/4 miles on Oct. 27 at Tokyo.

Auguste Rodin, well known to American racing fans as the winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita, has not raced since a second-place finish by a neck to Economics in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown Racecourse in Ireland on Sept. 14.

Auguste Rodin, trained by Aidan O’Brien, won the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in England in June. The Japan Cup is his final start before he is retired to stud.

Goliath, trained in France by Francis-Henri Graffard, was the upset winner of the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 1 1/2 miles at Ascot in July and followed with a half-length win as the favorite in the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris at 1 3/8 miles at Longchamp Racecourse in Paris on Oct. 20.

Fantastic Moon won the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden at 1 1/2 miles in Germany on good-to-firm turf on Sept. 1, but was ninth of 16 in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on yielding turf on Oct. 6 at Longchamp.

Fantastic Moon was nearly scratched from the Arc that day because of the turf condition, but remained in the race once trainer Sarah Steinberg learned a late withdrawal would lead to a fine of approximately $60,300.

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