Strobe has massive talent edge in allowance sprint

Two starts into his career, the 3-year-old colt Strobe gave off the glow of a flashy sprinter, his ceiling clearly high, still unknown. Now, following a sound defeat as the 1-5 favorite in his third start, warning lights attached to Strobe’s career profile blink brighter.

Beaten into a 6 1/2-length loss Nov. 12 at Churchill Downs, Strobe nonetheless will be heavily favored over four foes in the featured fifth race Thursday at Fair Grounds.

A Godolphin homebred, the Brad Cox-trained Strobe is by uber-sire Into Mischief and out of the A.P. Indy mare Flashing, who became a Grade 1 winner capturing her final start, the 2009 Gazelle Stakes. As a 2-year-old of 2021, Strobe posted three workouts during late spring at Keeneland but didn’t show a work between June 13 and Jan. 27. Strobe stayed on a relatively steady Fair Grounds breeze pattern through March 19, but didn’t show up on the work tab again until April 16 at Keeneland.

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Still, he came to his belated career debut, the last of 14 races on Derby Day, May 7, plenty ready to run. Pressing a strong pace, Strobe skipped clear in upper stretch at Churchill Downs and drew away to a 4 1/2-length maiden win that yielded a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The number was flashy indeed, but following two more works in May, Strobe was absent from the tab until September, yet galloped to a victory in a first-level allowance at Keeneland in October that came back with a 97 Beyer.

About a month later at Churchill, racing on a sloppy track in his first wet-track start, Strobe could not quite keep pace early with a horse named Knocker Down and proved no match for that rival through the final furlong. Knocker Down, who dwarfed Strobe in stature, turned him back and went on to an easy win. Granted, Knocker Down is a fast 3-year-old. In October, he failed to handle turf at Keeneland, a race sandwiched between two strong second-place finishes to another very good sophomore sprinter, Tejano Twist. While Knocker Down did run strongly, Strobe regressed, his Beyer dropping to 88.

“There wasn’t any one thing that was the reason for him not going on to win that day,” Cox said. “Maybe it was the track. He ran back in four weeks, but he won in hand at Keeneland. He didn’t perform as well as we expected, but he bounced out in good order.”

Cox at this Fair Grounds meet had gone 4-6-0 with 15 runners through Sunday. Ten of those starters were favored, all at odds of 9-5 or lower. Eight favorites ran in Fair Grounds maiden or allowance races, going 4-3-0. Strobe will be odds-on breaking from the rail under Florent Geroux and, red flags aside, merely running back to his last-start loss ought to get the job done. None of the other four is fast enough to run early with Strobe, whose win price, likely less than $3, won’t be flashy at all.

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