Straight Line capable of upset
NEW YORK - The $750,000 United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park, and the $500,000 Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park are both Grade 1 events and the two richest races on Saturday's schedule. But the next two most lucrative races are at tracks not normally associated with big-figure purses. Those races are the $350,000 Ohio Derby at Thistledown, and the $300,000 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Breeders' Cup Handicap.
Ohio Derby
Magna Graduate, the morning-line favorite, is likely to be overbet here off a running line last time out in the Lone Star Derby that actually looks better on paper than it really was. People may assume Magna Graduate was forced to lose ground around the first turn after breaking from post 11. But the fact is, he dropped back to last quickly and wasn't forced to lose any ground around the first turn. Folks may also be impressed by a rally that carried him to a fourth-place finish, which was okay, but was greatly aided by a quick early pace. Magna Graduate may win, especially in his first start for Todd Pletcher, who is successful a ridiculous 30 percent of the time in such situations, but his probable odds are unappealing.
Straight Line is a solid play here. Straight Line recently returned from a three-month absence to wallop older opponents in an optional claimer at Arlington Park. Even though this angle didn't work for me last week with Criminal Mind in the Colonial Turf Cup, moving from a race against older horses into one for straight 3-year-olds still amounts to a substantial class drop. Moreover, Straight Line earned a Beyer Speed Figure last time out of 97, which, although not a career-best for him, is better than what any other horse in this field has ever earned.
Straight Line is a question going two turns. But taking that kind of risk is acceptable when the horse in question isn't likely to be the favorite, and when he is the fastest in the race by a considerable margin.
Prairie Meadows Cornhusker
It is bad for one's parimutuel health to routinely bet horses coming off double-digit defeats like Musique Toujours. This, however, is not an especially tough stakes, and is a good spot for Musique Toujours to rebound at a square ticket.
Musique Toujours was a distant eighth in the New Orleans Handicap in his last start, but was up against it that day. For one, he was in with much tougher (Limehouse, the runner-up, recently won the Brooklyn Handicap). On top of that, he went against the grain of an intensely speed-biased surface. That race was almost four months ago, but running fresh is a positive for Musique Toujours. When he posted a 70-1 upset over a solid field in the Sunshine Millions Classic in January, he was coming off a five-month break. When he was a narrowly beaten second in the Claiming Crown Jewel last summer, it was off a two-month layoff.
There isn't a lot of speed in this race, which means that Musique Toujours should be a major player from the start. That, it turns out, is his most effective running style.
United Nations
With the presence of two Bobby Frankel-trained runners (License to Run and Exterior) with solid Southern California running lines, with last year's U.N. winner Request for Parole making his second start off a layoff, and with Better Talk Now sporting a dull-looking running line last time out in the Dixie, value may actually be had on Breeders' Cup Turf upsetter Better Talk Now. That's good, because he is the firm pick.
Saturday
Thistledown: Ohio Derby
3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles
Approximate post: Eastern-4:45 p.m., Central-3:45 p.m., Mountain-2:45 p.m., Pacific-1:45 p.m.; North Randall, Oh., forecast: Sunny, 76 degrees
| PP | HORSE | LAST 3 BEYERS | ODDS |
| 1 | Unbridled Energy | 908786 | 4-1 |
| 2 | Magna Graduate | 918788 | 5-2 |
| 3 | Silver Haze | 848584 | 12-1 |
| 4 | It's Time to Smile | 758162 | 15-1 |
| 5 | Palladio | 908686 | 6-1 |
| 6 | Straight Line | 971598 | 6-1 |
| 7 | Pinpoint | 648781 | 7-2 |
| 8 | Hal's Image | 835883 | 6-1 |
Track morning line odds
Monmouth Park: United Nations Stakes
3 and up, 1 3/8 miles, turf
Approximate post: E-5:28 p.m., C-4:28 p.m., M-3:28 p.m., P-2:28 p.m.; Oceanport, N. J., forecast: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees
| PP | HORSE | LAST 3 BEYERS | ODDS |
| 1 | Better Talk Now | 8710396 | 3-1 |
| 2 | Gunning For | 949575 | 30-1 |
| 3 | Cool Conductor | 989895 | 6-1 |
| 4 | Request for Parole | 8797103 | 8-1 |
| 5 | License to Run | 9088101 | 5-1 |
| 6 | Silverfoot | 989596 | 4-1 |
| 7 | Exterior | 10199100 | 7-2 |
| 8 | Shake the Bank | 726691 | 50-1 |
| 9 | Navesink River | 9589102 | 8-1 |
| 10 | Spruce Run | 948282 | 50-1 |
Odds by Art Gropper
Prairie Meadows: Cornhusker B.C. Handicap
3 and up, 1 1/8 miles
Approximate post: E-10:18 p.m., C-9:18 p.m., M-8:18 p.m., P-7:18 p.m.; Altoona, Ia., forecast: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees
| PP | HORSE | LAST 3 BEYERS | ODDS |
| 1 | Lord of the Game | 1029798 | 3-1 |
| 2 | Habaneros | 858198 | 6-1 |
| 3 | Cryptograph | 99100101 | 5-2 |
| 4 | Scooter Rains | 928279 | 20-1 |
| 5 | Musique Toujours | 8410789 | 7-2 |
| 6 | Skipaslew | 899104 | 4-1 |
| 7 | Tricky Mocha | 988480 | 15-1 |
| 8 | Mambo Train | 909281 | 15-1 |
| 9 | Silver Axe | 1018197 | 15-1 |
Coupled: Tricky Mocha and Silver Axe; track morning line odds