Stopchargingmaria may be vulnerable in duPont Distaff

BALTIMORE – At first glance, Stopchargingmaria looks like a standout Friday at Pimlico in the Grade 3, $150,000 Allaire Dupont Distaff, but handicapping at first glance is not a great idea, and Stopchargingmaria, while possibly the best-known horse in the race, might not be a sure thing.

Trained by Todd Pletcher for Mike Repole, Stopchargingmaria is one of 12 older fillies and mares in the Dupont, a 1 1/8-mile dirt race. She’s 9-5 on the morning line and could go postward an even shorter price. The winner of the Black-Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend a year ago, Stopchargingmaria is the field’s only Grade 1 winner, and by virtue of victories in the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama, she was an Eclipse Award finalist for champion 3-year-old filly of 2014.

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Stopchargingmaria concluded her 3-year-old campaign with a distant second to Belle Gallantey in the Grade 1 Beldame on Sept. 27 and began her 4-year-old campaign with a second to Princess Violet in the Grade 1 Madison Stakes last month at Keeneland. The seven-furlong Madison looked like a good prep for a stretch-out in distance, but there are reasons at least to hedge against a Stopchargingmaria victory Friday.

Key contenders

Stopchargingmaria (Last 3 Beyers: 92-89-82)

* That three-back 82 Beyer was earned in winning the Alabama, and it is very low for a winning Grade 1 performance. Stopchargingmaria is a solid filly, but her Grade 1s came in subpar races for the class level. She didn’t run in the Kentucky Oaks and never faced Untapable last year, and even her comeback race in the Madison came against rivals of moderate quality.

* Pletcher considered her for the La Troienne at Churchill but didn’t care for the way she worked over the dirt track there. A start in the Ruffian at Belmont also was mulled, but Pletcher didn’t like the way that race was weighted. A sharp workout May 9 at Belmont (“Her best work since before the Alabama,” Petcher said) and last year’s win over this track led to her Dupont entry.

Formulator Fact: Over the last five years, Pletcher is 27-8-2-3 with a $4.49 ROI with dirt horses going sprint to route and racing in a graded stakes the second time back from a layoff, but that ROI is nearly entirely the product of Danza’s 41-1 win in the 2014 Arkansas Derby.

Yahilwa (Last 3 Beyers: 92-77-75)

* Draw a line through her starts two and three races back, and she looks like Stopchargingmaria’s equal but at a better price. Trainer Jim Cassidy said he ran Yahilwa back too fast in the Dec. 6 Bayakoa Stakes, and in the Feb. 14 Santa Maria, the mare pulled too hard early in the race and never got into a rhythm.

* A stumbling start in the Sixty Sails at Hawthorne led to a relaxed, off-the-pace victory at the Dupont distance.

“She’ll relax pretty good if the jockey doesn’t fight her,” Cassidy said.

* Cassidy is based in California but shipped Yahilwa from Hawthorne to Churchill, having circled this race just after the Sixty Sails.

Lunar Surge (Last 3 Beyers: 89-83-86)

* Not going anywhere from post 1 – this is her third consecutive start coming up the rail, and she has no fear of rallying inside.

* In career-best form and was badly compromised by stretch traffic last out at Keeneland.