Steve Davidowitz's Withers Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Aqueduct inner track, Feb. 1
(10 Derby eligibility points to the winner, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Only six were in the starting gate, including two New York-breds, Samraat and Uncle Sigh, and they dominated the race from flag fall to finish.

Samraat broke to the lead from post 5, but Uncle Sigh quickly took over along the rail to begin a racelong duel that would leave the rest of the field out of contention.

Samraat had won his three prior starts, including a 16 3/4-length score in the Damon Runyon at a mile and 70 yards for statebreds Dec. 18. The performance earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. Uncle Sigh had two prior races: A sharp second in a six-furlong maiden race on Dec. 7 which earned a 95 Beyer and a 14 1/2-length victory in a mile and 70-yard maiden race which earned a 93. None of the other four in the Withers had earned anything higher than an 85.

Given the ease of his three prior victories, Samraat passed an important test here, gaining valuable seasoning dealing with a dead game Uncle Sigh, who stubbornly led his rival by a half-length from the clubhouse turn to the quarter pole. Through the stretch, the pair continued stride for stride until Samraat finally edged away to score by a length in 1:46.31 to earn a 94 Beyer Fig.

Uncle Sigh was a slight favorite, but both horses went off at 1.15-1 odds and cut out faster-than-par splits through the first six furlongs in 1:12.77. Apparently the competitive effort did take its toll, because the dueling pair began to slow down reaching the mile in 1:39.06 with Samraat finishing his final sixteenth in a pedestrian 7.25.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

The implication from the way the race was run is that both of these lightly raced horses have the talent to compete in similar races at similar or slightly longer distances. Yet if either should get caught in another speed duel against tougher competition, he could be vulnerable.

Given the way Samraat handled Uncle Sigh in the final furlong, he looked the stronger of the two. Yet, the result might have been different had Uncle Sigh been outside, not pinned to the inside of his rival.

Consider the performances of Classic Giacnroll and the maiden Scotland, who previously had finished second and third to Noble Moon in a hard-fought renewal of the Jerome stakes at a mile 70 yards on Jan. 4.

As noted in my report for the Jerome, Scotland seemed intimidated racing inside of Noble Moon, giving way late to finish third, 2 1/2 lengths behind Classic Giacnroll.

In the Withers, Scotland was bothered shortly after the start, showed no speed for more than five furlongs while saving ground, but came out to the middle of the track on the far turn to race outside Classic Giacnroll. The difference was noticeable as Scotland outfinished his rival by 2 3/4 lengths for third. While neither horse seems in the same league as Samraat or Uncle Sigh, Scotland definitely ran better with clear sailing.