Steve Davidowitz's Sunland Derby analysis

Grade 3, $800,110 Sunland Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Sunland Park, March 23
(50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Whereas Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert won his fourth Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park earlier this month, his record in the rich Sunland Derby is not too shabby either.

Having won this Derby prep race in 2006 with Wanna Runner and last year with Govenor Charlie, Baffert sent two horses to Sunland this year - Chitu and Midnight Hawk.

They had finished second and third, respectively, behind highly regarded Candy Boy in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8. This time at Sunland there was no Candy Boy to worry about, and the Baffert-trained pair battled it out for the top two finishing positions after blowing by early pacesetter Garen approaching the far turn.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Garen set a fast early pace on the glib racing surface, getting a half-mile in 46.46. He began to fade, however, just before Midnight Hawk took a short lead under Mike Smith as the Baffert pair reached six furlongs in 1:09.60. Both Baffert horses did seem a bit leg weary from there to the wire, yet still were battling each other approaching the mile in 1:34.58. Meanwhile, Todd Pletcher’s Commissioner eventually closed some ground for third, but there were no real challengers to the top two through the final furlongs.

Chitu, confidently ridden by Martin Garcia, edged clear from Midnight Hawk leaving the eighth pole to assert his superiority over his barnmate for the second straight time. At the wire, the strong, compactly built son of Henny Hughes out of an A. P. Indy mare was 2 1/4 lengths best in 1:47.88, for a solid 102 Beyer Speed Figure and just .34 of a second off Govenor Charlie’s track record.

Chitu was the 9-5 betting favorite over his barnmate, who was 2.10-1. Beyond the $400,000 winning purse, the 50 points Chitu earned gave him a total of 54 and virtually assures a berth in the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby. Chitu now has won three races from four career starts and is improving.

With his second-place finish in this race, Midnight Hawk added 20 Derby qualifying points to bring his total to 52. While he also seems assured of a Derby starting berth, Midnight Hawk has weakened in the late stages of all three of his races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles to suggest he really is a miler. Perhaps Baffert will reserve him for races shorter than the Kentucky Derby.

Commissioner definitely needs to show more if Pletcher decides to put him in a final Derby prep. Otherwise, the well-bred son of A.P. Indy is not going to have any realistic chance of victory on Derby Day.

Next week: The 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby; 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby; and 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby.