Steve Davidowitz's Spiral Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $518,950 Spiral Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Turfway Park, Polytrack, March 22

(50 Derby qualifying points to the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth.)

After a hard-fought 1 1/8 miles, barely six inches separated the first three finishers in this Kentucky Derby prep race on Turfway Park’s synthetic Polytrack racing surface.

At the wire, 7-2 second choice We Miss Artie had a nose edge over 15-1 shot Harry’s Holiday, with 8-1 shot Coastline a very short head behind the top two in third. Asserting Bear, at 13-1, closed some ground late to finish only two lengths back to complete the foursome earning Derby qualifying points.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

The big disappointment was Tamarando, the 2-1 betting favorite with synthetic track victories in the seven- furlong, Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer and the 1 1/18-mile El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields last month. Tamarando was far back early and did make a brief move while extremely wide on the final turn but lost ground to finish eighth here with no apparent excuses.

Beyond the dramatic outcome, synthetic track race results tend to produce ambiguous indications regarding potential performances on Churchill Downs’s dirt track. That said, We Miss Artie’s performance in the Spiral was worth the price of admission.

Breaking from post 11 in the 12-horse field, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez navigated We Miss Artie safely to a mid-pack position entering the clubhouse turn. Velazquez kept his mount in that position through most of the backstretch even though We Miss Artie was tugging on the bit as if he immediately wanted to take on the three battling leaders—Solitary Ranger, Almost Famous, and Harry’s Holiday.

Heading around the far turn, Velazquez gave We Miss Artie his cue and the son of 2005 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Artie Schiller accelerated five wide to reach a strong challenging position at the top of the stretch, two lengths behind Harry’s Holiday and Coastline. Those two had dispensed with Almost Famous and Solitary Ranger and were now continuing forward with gusto inches apart.

The stretch drive was tense for all three horses.

First , Harry’s Holiday under Rosie Napravnik took a narrow advantage over Coastline under Stewart Elliott as both horses fought each other with considerable determination. In the upper stretch it appeared that We Miss Artie would not get to either colt. Even inside the final furlong, We Miss Artie had not made any headway, when he suddenly lengthened stride and surged to catch Harry’s Holiday on the wire by the margin of a pencil tip.

The pace was fast for the first quarter clocked in 22.78 seconds, but slow thereafter, as the leaders reached six furlongs in 1:12.43 and the mile in 1:38.59. Despite the dramatic stretch battle, the tepid final clocking of 1:52.26 earned a moderate 85 Beyer Speed Figure.

It was a Hall of Fame ride and a gallant performance by a good colt with an obvious preference for synthetics. In his only prior try on a synthetic track, We Miss Artie won the 2013 Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity on Keeneland’s Polytrack. Unfortunately for him, the Kentucky Derby will not be run on a synthetic track surface.

In the synthetic track era, which stretches back to 2005, only two horses have won the Kentucky Derby coming out of good performances on synthetic tracks - Street Sense and Animal Kingdom.

A versatile colt, Street Sense had won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Churchill’s dirt track in 2006 and was a sharp second in the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes on Keeneland’s Polytrack. Animal Kingdom emphatically won the 2011 Spiral on this track and trained like a demon on Churchill’s dirt surface for the Kentucky Derby. By contrast, We Miss Artie was seventh in the 2013 BC Juvenile at Santa Anita Park and must show clear signs of improvement when trainer Todd Pletcher sets him up for his important Derby week workouts.

As for Harry’s Holiday and Coastline, Harry’s Holiday did win an allowance sprint on dirt at Gulfstream Park in December and Coastline did win the one-mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill last fall. While both showed improvement in the Spiral, neither has yet to win a race around two turns, or a graded stakes. Frankly, as entertaining as the Spiral was, I will be surprised if any horse who ran in this race goes on to win the Kentucky Derby.