Steve Davidowitz’s Sham Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes; one mile; Santa Anita; Jan. 11.
(10 Derby eligibility points to the winner, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth.)

After two scratches (Top Fortitude and Life Is a Joy) reduced the Sham Stakes to a four-horse field, the one-mile race developed into an entertaining match race between heavily favored Midnight Hawk and second choice Kristo. We learned a lot about both horses.

Kristo, making his fourth career start – including a win around two turns at Santa Anita last fall – took the lead immediately from his inside post. Midnight Hawk – making his second lifetime start and first around two turns – moved smoothly outside of Ontology and I’ll Wrap It Up to secure second before the clubhouse turn.

Continuing to move forward through the turn, Midnight Hawk reached equal terms with Kristo entering the backstretch. From there to the quarter pole, the two 3-year-olds pushed each other through a 46.33 half-mile and six furlongs in 1:10.50, alternately poking their heads in front until Midnight Hawk surged to a clear lead entering the stretch.

Now in complete command, the hugely proportioned Midnight Hawk showed his inexperience lugging in from the three path to the inside rail approaching the final furlong. He also tilted his head toward the grandstand as jockey Mike Smith whipped him left-handed trying to correct his mount’s misbehavior.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Such issues usually correct themselves with racing experience. They also suggest considerable room for improvement. That, in fact, is the crucial issue Midnight Hawk will face going forward. Although he defeated Kristo by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:36.48 for the mile to earn a positive 95 Beyer Speed Figure, he slowed down noticeably through his final quarter-mile, which was clocked in 25.98 and concluded with a 13.42 final furlong. If this son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute is going to develop into a bona fide contender for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, he will need to ration his speed and finish his next outings with more authority.

Smith realistically evaluated the performance: “It’s great to see a colt this talented with room to grow.” Smith also was glad to find out this early in the Triple Crown chase that Midnight Hawk can “go long.”

Trainer Bob Baffert also liked Midnight Hawk’s performance “a lot better without the blinkers.” (He wore blinkers in his winning debut.) Baffert also said that he likes the idea “of running Midnight Hawk more than working him . . . He is a big, heavy horse. I think he can handle a lot.”

The other two in the field looked overmatched, despite excellent tactical placement 1 1/2 to two lengths behind the top pair for the first five furlongs. Entering the far turn, I’ll Wrap It Up began to fall out of contention, while Ontology stayed in striking distance to the top of the stretch but had no rally, despite the favorable pace setup.

For his part, Kristo turned in an aggressive effort and never gave up, reaching out nicely in his final strides while clearly beaten. He also galloped out well. This suggests that Kristo has some inherent stamina that may come into play with more patient tactics down the road.

Next week: The Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan. 18 and the $150,000 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 20.