Steve Davidowitz’s San Felipe Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $300,500 San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita Park, March 8.

(50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth.)

With the early scratch of the undefeated Bayern and the race-day scratches of Home Run Kitten and Rprettyboyfloyd, seven were left in this important stepping-stone to the $1 million Santa Anita Derby on April 5.

While California Chrome turned in a front-running, 7 1/4-length victory in 1:40.59 to certify his legitimacy as a serious Kentucky Derby threat, his dominant win called into question the Derby credentials of every other horse in the field.

Confidently ridden by Victor Espinoza, the California-bred California Chrome went to the post favored at 7-5 and earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest of the year by a 3-year-old.

Now a five-time winner from nine career starts, including four stakes victories, California Chrome was scoring his first graded stakes victory in his third race against open company. The performance provided convincing evidence that there are only a few 3-year-olds in the West who might give him a good battle in the Santa Anita Derby. That select group includes Bayern, pending his recovery from a minor leg issue; Candy Boy, the impressive winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 8; San Vicente Stakes winner Kobe’s Back, and possibly El Camino Real Derby winner Tamarando.

Midnight Hawk did push California Chrome through quick fractions – 45.55 seconds for the opening half-mile and six furlongs in 1:09.45 – and held on gamely to finish second. But he was no match for the winner, who extended his lead through the stretch under mild urging.

No other horse in the field made any impact, including Kristo, who finished third, 6 1/4 lengths behind Midnight Hawk and 1 1/2 lengths in front of fourth-place finisher Schoolofhardrocks.

As a grandson of Pulpit out of a Not For Love mare, California Chrome’s breeding provides mixed signals about his distance potential. Yet he has finished so well for trainer Art Sherman in his two 1 1/16-mile races this year that classic distances may well be within his scope.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

The lightly raced Midnight Hawk tried hard but did not have an answer for the winner when the real test came in the final 1 1/2 furlongs. Having tired when third to Candy Boy in the Robert B. Lewis and having failed to rally in the San Felipe, Midnight Hawk is hinting at becoming a good miler, not a true Kentucky Derby type.

Kristo pressed the pace when second to Midnight Hawk in the one-mile Sham Stakes on Jan. 11 but attempted to fire from off the pace in the San Felipe. It didn’t work. Kristo was a bit rank while wide through the first turn, moved inside on the far turn, and came out again to rally mildly for third, beaten 13 1/2 lengths. With all of that said, the son of Distorted Humor might deserve another chance at this level.

Schoolofhardrocks had won a one-mile maiden race on the Del Mar Polytrack on Aug. 31 in his only prior start. His workouts prior to the San Felipe were excellent, but his modest fourth-place finish suggests that this spot was too ambitious. Save for later.

Unstoppable Colby, an Oaklawn Park maiden winner, failed to show that he belongs at this level. Recanted might appreciate a return to grass, and Sawyer’s Hill wants maidens.

Next: The Grade 2, $600,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.