Steve Davidowitz's Lexington Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $200,000 Lexington Stakes, 1 1/16 mi. Polytrack, , April 19 2014.

10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 11 for fourth.

With no horse in this field likely to benefit enough by the 10 Derby qualifying points to the winner, this race had no bearing on the top 20 attempting to make the Kentucky Derby starting field.

That said, it was an important race for Mr Speaker, who had shown speed only to fade in the Holy Bull Stakes on the Gulfstream dirt track early in the year.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Already established as a good horse for the grass, Mr Speaker finished strongly despite traffic issues to finish second to Gala Award in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes on the Gulfstream turf March 1. Saturday, Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey wanted to find out if he also should look for more races on synthetic surfaces.

The answer was a definitive, yes. As Mr Speaker, the 2-1 betting favorite, made a successful debut on the Polytrack with a convincing score over previously undefeated Divine Oath.

Settling into a good stalking position along the rail right behind dueling leaders Solitary Ranger and Supermonic, Mr Speaker was given his head by jockey Jose Lezcano coming out of the final turn to launch his winning bid.

Lezcano quickly saw a wide-open seam developing when the dueling leaders spread out turning into the stretch. From there to the wire, the only questions were the winning margin, the final time, and the Beyer Speed Figure.

The final time was in fact 1:44.18 for the 1 1/16 miles, good for a 90 Beyer Figure. and the winning margin over second-place finisher Divine Oath was a solid four lengths.

Supermonic did win the speed duel with Solitary Ranger and just failed to last for second, finishing a head behind Divine Oath and three-quarters of a length ahead of Ami’s Holiday. Ami’s Holiday, a graded stakes winner on the Polytrack at Woodbine last October, essentially raced evenly throughout for his fourth-place finish.

The fractional splits on a somewhat dull racing surface were slightly below par: 48.07 seconds for the first half-mile; 1:13.17 for six furlongs, and 1:37.97 for the mile.

However, Mr Speaker’s 6.21 clocking for the final sixteenth, indisputably was the best 110 yards of the entire race.

It not only secured his victory, it demonstrated that McGaughey has an improving 3-year old colt who could be a serious threat in any route race on a synthetic surface. That, to go along with his colt’s status as an emerging star in the 3-year- old turf division.