Stellar Wind leads solid core of favorites in Kentucky Oaks
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – By most accounts, the favorites for the Kentucky Derby this year look particularly strong. John Sadler believes the same holds true for the Kentucky Oaks – or at least he hopes so.
Sadler is the trainer of Stellar Wind, the lukewarm morning-line choice in the 141st running of the Grade 1, $1 million Kentucky Oaks on Friday. As the highly impressive winner of her last two starts in California, Stellar Wind is among a core of favorites in the filly classic at Churchill Downs, along with Condo Commando, Birdatthewire, and the Larry Jones duo of I’m a Chatterbox and Lovely Maria.
“I think it looks kind of the same for both the Derby and Oaks,” said Sadler. “And by that, I mean it looks like the top is the top. The shorter-priced horses look like they should do pretty well.”
Stellar Wind, with Victor Espinoza to ride, will break from post 12 in the 1 1/8-mile Oaks, which was oversubscribed for the first time since a points-eligibility system went into use in 2013. Fifteen 3-year-old fillies are on the program, with Peace and War the lone also-eligible for a race limited to 14 starters.
As always, the Oaks comes with numerous compelling story lines. One involves the prolific success of the Fair Grounds Oaks as a steppingstone, as six of the last 11 Oaks winners have used that race as a prep. I’m a Chatterbox, with Florent Geroux riding from post 8, comes off a 2 1/2-length score in the Fair Grounds Oaks as an odds-on favorite.
“I like that kind of talk,” said Jones, already a two-time Oaks winner with Proud Spell (2008) and Believe You Can (2012).
Another Oaks angle involves the touching tale of Angela Renee, who was named for Angela Roe, a late employee of Siena Farm, the owner-breeder of the Todd Pletcher-trained filly. And another involves Rosemary Homeister Jr., who in climbing aboard Include Betty will become just the third woman to ride in both the Derby and Oaks, following Julie Krone and Rosie Napravnik.
The Oaks is carded as the 11th of 12 Friday races and the last of six straight stakes on a program that gets an early start at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Extensive coverage of Oaks Day on NBCSN starts at 12:30 p.m., with the Oaks set for 5:49.
The Oaks is the leadoff leg to a pair of two-day wagers: an Oaks-Derby double ($1 minimum) and a 50-cent pick three on the Oaks, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, and Derby.
A spectacular weather forecast for Friday calls for mostly sunny skies and a high of 71. Oaks attendance has surpassed six figures every year since 2004, with the record of 116,046 set in 2010. Many in the crowd participate in a “pink out” to raise funds and awareness for breast cancer research.
Key contenders
Stellar Wind (Last 3 Beyers: 95-91-86)
* Purchased privately after two starts in Maryland, this Virginia-bred daughter of Curlin has taken her game to another level since coming under Sadler’s care, winning the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel and Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks with powerful rallies from off the pace.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 12 Stellar Wind. Trainer John Sadler is 63-2-9-13 with a $0.41 ROI over the past five years in races outside of California. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
:: Learn more about Formulator | Buy Formulator PPs
:: Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts
I’m a Chatterbox (Last 3 Beyers: 94-90-94)
* Versatile filly has gone unchallenged in three starts since being turned over to Jones by owners-breeders Carolyn and Fletcher Gray, punctuating decisive victories in the Silverbulletday and Rachel Alexandra with her March 28 triumph in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
Condo Commando (Last 3 Beyers: 86-90-96)
* Having raced exclusively in New York for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, she’s the obvious front-runner in this lineup, having used a bold style in winning all but one of her six starts, including several in jaw-dropping fashion.
Lovely Maria (Last 3 Beyers: 91-86-88)
* Second to I’m a Chatterbox in the Feb. 21 Rachel Alexandra, she flattered that race by winning the Grade 1 Ashland in her only subsequent start and comes into this in peak form.
Birdatthewire (Last 3 Beyers: 89-86-86)
* Trained by hometown hero Dale Romans, this stretch-running filly overcame backstretch trouble when capturing the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her final prep to complete an outstanding winter campaign in Florida.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 13 Birdatthewire. Trainer Dale Romans is 22-4-2-2 with a $4.85 ROI over the past two years in dirt route graded stakes at Churchill. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Shook Up (Last 3 Beyers: 90-79-84)
* One of a handful of viable longshots in the Oaks field, she was the runner-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks and comes favorably drawn in post 2 for trainer Steve Asmussen, a two-time Oaks winner with Summerly (2005) and Untapable (2014).
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 1 Forever Unbridled. Trainer Dallas Stewart is 51-1-6-7 with a $0.34 ROI over the past five years in dirt route graded stakes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 14 Puca. Trainer Bill Mott is 22-5-4-3 with a $3.57 ROI over the past five years in dirt route graded stakes in the third start following a layoff. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
