Stats Guide: Royal Hunt Cup

Last year's race

Winner: Dark Shift

Jockey: James McDonald

Trainer: Charlie Hills

Owner: Mr H Frost

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 1lbs

Starting Price: 13/2

Season Form Figures: 01

Previous Best: 1st - Class 2 Handicap, Nottingham (May 2022)

By Paul Jones

Four and five-year-olds make up the lion's share of runners (usually around 75%) but given that combined they have won 33 of the last 37 runnings, they have been over-performing so I am more than happy to overlook any horse aged six and upwards.

I give four-year-olds the edge and Dark Shift was another winning four-year-old last season. In fact, four-year-olds realised a 1-2-3 in both of the previous two seasons following on from a 1-2-3-4-5-6 in both 2016 and 2017 plus a 1-2-4 in 2018 so that seems to be as good a statistical starting point as any.

Previous straight-course form at Ascot has proved to be an important factor in recent times and the 2019 winner, Afaak, had finished runner-up the previous year. The Victoria Cup at the May Meeting has provided an ideal springboard for nine of the last 28 Hunt Cups. The Britannia Handicap at the previous season’s Royal Ascot also used to be a significant guide but not so much of late though Zhui Feng was unplaced in that 3yo handicap in 2016 before winning the 2017 Royal Hunt Cup. The 2013 Hunt Cup winner, Belgian Bill, had finished placed in the Britannia two years earlier.

Outside of Ascot form, the Lincoln remains of interest with four of the last 21 Hunt Cup winners having contested the season's traditional first big betting race of the season, though only one of that successful quartet ran into a place at Doncaster. A couple of fairly recent winners contested the Whitsun Cup at Sandown.

Although only three of the last 13 winners started at single-figure odds, overall, the Royal Hunt Cup has been a pretty good handicap for punters with 14 winners in the last 30 years being sent off in the first four in the betting. No mean feat for almost 50% of winners in that long period of time to be one of the four shortest-priced fancies given that around 30 runners face the starter. Given those SP stats it is no surprise that 17 of the last 24 winners won or finished second earlier in the campaign. Dark Shift was winning under a 5lb penalty last year for a ready success at Nottingham.

We often have a Newmarket-trained favourite but, although the record of the front four in the betting is good, only one market leader has won since 1996. James Fanshawe is a trainer to note on the straight-course races at Royal Ascot and his record in this race passes the closest scrutiny having won it twice and he has had five other runners since the turn of the century also make the frame.

As for the Irish, two wins in the last seven years from limited runners mean we have to take them very seriously.

As far as weight carried is concerned, only one winner has carried more than 9st 5lb (four carried exactly that weight) since 1980 and that was just 1lb higher.

A U-turn has occurred in the last decade or so with regards horses saddled with under or over 9st. Going with the ‘unders’ was a must up until 2008 as just two winners since 1989 carried more than 9st to victory but 12 of the last 16 winners carried 9st+ (including the seven up to Real World in 2021), though that is now reflective of the fact more horses have carried over 9st than otherwise in recent years.

With regards to the draw, what happens earlier in the week is often the best guide with regards to the straight course...until they water that is.

Three of the last 15 winners were wearing some kind of new headgear for the first time including both of Saeed bin Suroor’s winners. Charlie Hills was winning his second Hunt Cup in four years last season.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Previous quality straight-track Ascot form
Four-year-olds
Carrying 9st+
Irish-trained
Respect Charlie Hills, James Fanshawe and Saeed bin Suroor
First four in the market
New headgear

Negatives:
Aged 6+
Set to carry 9st 6lb+