Stats Guide: Ribblesdale Stakes

Last year’s race

Magical Lagoon
Winner: Magical Lagoon
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Jessica Harrington
Owner: Zhang Yuesheng
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 2lbs
Starting Price: 11/4
Season Form Figures: 2
Previous Best: 2nd - Salsabil Stakes (Listed), Navan (April 2022)

Oaks runners have a fair record given how few fillies have contested both prizes turning out again relatively quickly, recording seven wins since 1997.

It is not a massively strong trends race but it can still pay to look to a later-developing improver as just seven winners in the last 28 years had been contesting Group races as juveniles so the Ribblesdale boasts a very similar pattern in this respect to the colts' equivalent of this race at the Royal Meeting, the King Edward VII Stakes.

Just six runners last season rendered the draw over 1m4f an irrelevance but on eight of the nine previous runnings which all had double-figure fields, fillies drawn in the lower half nearer the rail were victorious.

With regards to a filly’s last run, five winners in the last 21 years won a maiden last time out. The 2019 winner, Star Catcher, was previously third in a Listed prize but ended the season and the leading 3yo middle-distance filly adding three Group 1s after her success in the Ribblesdale. She was trained by John Gosden as was Loving Dream in 2021 who was previously only fifth in the Lingfield Oaks Trial but she also went on to Group 1 success later in the campaign so was another for the stable to take a big step forward in winning here. The Gosden yard are chasing a fifth win in seven years (also saddled four seconds this century) having also won the Ribblesdale with Coronet and Frankly Darling.

Winning form earlier in the season is usually a good steer as 18 of the last 24 winners had won either of their last two starts during the current campaign and ten of the last 15 winners had won at Group or Listed level at some point in their career.

Following Magical Lagoon’s success for Jessica Harrington last season the Irish have won the Ribblesdale nine times in the last 21 years (three for Aidan O’Brien and two Dermot Weld) including the 1-2 in 2015 so they have fared considerably better than in the colt’s equivalent, the King Edward VII.

Godolphin were quiet in this race with no runners between 2006-2008 but they have won it twice since adding to three previous successes (all trained by Saeed bin Suroor) and four seconds from 15 runners. Sir Michael Stoute should be faring a whole lot better and has been responsible for six losing favourites from his last 24 runners, the latest being Noon Star in 2021 who could only finish sixth as the 2/1 market leader.

At a glance summary

POSITIVES

Won a Group or Listed race
Trained in Ireland or John & Thady Gosden
Drawn in the lower half (if double-figure field)
Last-time-out maiden winner
Godolphin owned
Did not contest a Group race as a two-year-old

NEGATIVES

Not won either of last two starts
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute