Stats Guide: Queen's Vase

Last year's race

Winner: Eldar Eldarov

Jockey: David Egan

Trainer: Roger Varian

Owner: KHK Racing Ltd

Age: 3

Weight: 9st 2lbs

Starting Price: 5/2

Season Form Figures: 1

Previous Best: 1st - Class 5 Novice, Newcastle (AW) (May 2022)

By Paul Jones

Now that the race takes place over 1m6f, the draw becomes more important as there is a very short run to the first bend. Maybe no surprise therefore that in the first running over the shortened trip that five of the first six horses were drawn in single figures. The effect of the draw wasn’t so pronounced in 2019 but that race took place on the softest ground of the meeting giving more time for jockeys to find a position. As for 2020, there were only eight runners so it was irrelevant but in the last two years stall 3 beat stall 5 before a 3-6-1 outcome last season so low draws near the rail were favoured again.

Upgraded to a Group 2 status and decreased in distance from 2m to 1m6f in 2017 in an attempt to breathe new life into this division, that move worked perfectly with four of the first six winners since that change being the subsequent x3 Ascot Gold Cup hero, Stradivarius, the subsequent St Leger winners, Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov, and Santiago who went on to win the Irish Derby in Covid year.

It had also seemed to be doing okay to me beforehand though having recently featured three other St Leger and two Gold Cup winners ahead of that change, so it is certainly a race to take note of contenders going forward.

It has been the Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin show since the turn of the century carving up 20 of the 23 runnings between them. Only John Gosden, Andrew Balding and Roger Varian have got in on that act during that period with one winner apiece.

Five years ago, O’Brien produced a 1-2-3 and, with a better draw, his Barbados (from 12 of 13) may well have won in 2019 rather than beaten half a length. With his father having trained seven of the last 22 winners, we wait to see what Charlie Johnston can do but it has been O’Brien dominating of late and he is chasing a sixth win in the last 11 years (and an eighth in 17).

The Aga Khan and Sir Michael Stoute successfully combined with Maridpour (1998) and Dalampour (2000) plus Stoute has also won two of the last 15 runnings with Patkai and Estimate for different owners. Also take note that Sheikh Mohammed has won seven Queen’s Vase's since 1990, four in his maroon-and-white colours and three in the Godolphin blue, the latest with Kemari in 2021.

Also note that the Queen’s Vase has been a mighty good race for followers of the market with 25 of the last 28 winners starting in the first four in the betting and just one winner during that time period started at any bigger than 11/1. The favourite has obliged on nine occasions in the last 23 years following Eldar Eldarov’s success last year.

Fourteen winners this century had recorded a victory earlier in the campaign so it is a little surprising that 11 of the last 21 winners were beaten last time out. That said, 11 of the last 16 winners to beaten on their most recent start were contesting Group and Listed races in defeat.

Of winners since 1992, just six were sired by a stallion with a Stamina Index of less than ten furlongs. These SI stats aren’t surprising given that this a stern test of stamina for 3yos in June (even over 1m6f now rather than 2m) so horses with plenty of staying power in their pedigree have unsurprisingly come to the fore.

The most surprising statistic with regards to winners since 1996 was that as many as seven were unraced at two. However, that trend is deceiving as the last 14 winners raced as juveniles and now it is a Group 2, that will be even harder to overturn.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Start in the first four in the betting
A low draw
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Johnston or Sir Michael Stoute
Owned by Godolphin
Won this season

Negatives:
By a sire with a Stallion Index of under 10f