Stats Guide: Queen Anne Stakes

Last year’s race:

Winner: Baaeed

Jockey: Jim Crowley

Trainer: William J Haggas

Owner: Shadwell Estate Company Ltd

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 2lbs

Starting Price: 1/6

Season Form Figures: 1

Previous Best: 1st - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1), Ascot (October 2021)

By Paul Jones

We have the strongest trends race of Royal Ascot to kick off the five-day extravaganza, and there is a standout pick on the stats in Modern Games ticking all the main boxes, whereas his main market rival Inspiral has notable historical patterns to overcome.

Sixteen of the last 20 winners had already struck at Group 1 level and it is the Lockinge Stakes that has been the key guide, having featured 24 Queen Anne winners since 1980 after Palace Pier and Baaeed completed the double in the last two seasons. The consistent globetrotter Modern Games is likely to go off favourite (just three winners since 1995 did not feature in the first four in the betting) to make that three on the spin after winning his fourth Group 1 success - his first domestically after top-level victories in France, Canada and two Breeders’ Cup wins in America.

Being the first domestic Group 1 of the season for older horses that takes place over a mile, the Lockinge is the natural starting point. However, defeated horses at Newbury actually have a better winning record than the winner, claiming 15 of the last 27 runnings, but of course there are more beaten horses than winners. This season’s runner-up Chindit looks set to have a second go at taking him on. The Queen Anne is also the only Royal Ascot entry for Berkshire Shadow (3rd) and Mutasaabeq (5th).

Modern Games is a four-year-old and they have won 23 of the last 30 runnings of the Queen Anne, so that’s another big tick for the Godolphin horse, as is the fact his owners have won eight Queen Anne’s down the years to add to their now-eight successes in the Lockinge.

As for the other powerhouse owners of European racing, Aidan O’Brien has had mixed fortunes in the Queen Anne for Coolmore, as horses with more brilliance than his four winners (Ad Valorem, Haradasun, Declaration Of War and Circus Maximus), such as Hawk Wing, George Washington and Rip Van Winkle, failed to even place. Two of his four winners were disappointing in the Lockinge, which was used mainly as a prep race, but he was unrepresented at Newbury this year.

Last season’s brilliant Coronation Stakes winner on the round course at this meeting on her seasonal debut, Inspiral is the ante-post second-favourite for what is set to be her first run of the campaign once again. Ignoring the Covid year, when Royal Ascot began just two weeks into the belated start of the 2020 season, only one seasonal debutant in Toronado has won since Allied Forces in 1997.

Inspiral looks the clear pick of the fillies, but the only two fillies/mares to win in the Queen Anne in the last 48 years were the reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile winners Goldikova and Tepin. Having disappointed in the QEII on this straight course last autumn (fifth as 11/10 fav), some are questioning whether the round course will suit her better.

The Hannon stable have won three of the last 14 renewals and are set to be represented by last year’s fourth Chindit. Sir Michael Stoute won all three runnings between 2000-2002 but none before or after, and he is unrepresented this time.

The French have won on three occasions going back to 2005, and their two entries are Erevann and Facteur Cheval.

In 2019, Lord Glitters became the oldest winner since 1976 at the age of six. The seven-year-old Pogo is the only entry aged over five this year.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Contested the Lockinge Stakes
Four-year-olds
Owned by Godolphin

Negatives:
Failed to have won a Group 1
Outside the first four in the betting
Aged over five
Fillies/mares (unless Breeders’ Cup Mile winner)
Seasonal debutantes